Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26 October–2 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.0–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.0–20.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 24 22–26 22–27 21–27 20–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.3%  
22 9% 96%  
23 19% 87%  
24 23% 67% Median
25 22% 44%  
26 13% 22%  
27 7% 9%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.3%  
21 10% 96%  
22 19% 86%  
23 24% 66% Median
24 23% 43%  
25 12% 19%  
26 5% 8% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 5% 98.9% Last Result
20 11% 94%  
21 25% 83%  
22 23% 58% Median
23 19% 35%  
24 11% 15%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.8% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 8% 98%  
16 19% 90%  
17 25% 71% Median
18 26% 47%  
19 14% 21%  
20 5% 7%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 16% 98%  
7 43% 82% Median
8 29% 39%  
9 9% 11%  
10 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 27% 95%  
7 41% 69% Median
8 22% 27%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 69 100% 67–72 67–72 66–73 65–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 93% 51–56 50–56 50–57 48–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 81% 50–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 4% 45–50 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 46 0.9% 44–49 43–49 43–50 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.2% 43–47 42–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 38 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–41 33–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 31 0% 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 1.1% 99.7%  
66 3% 98.7%  
67 10% 96%  
68 16% 86%  
69 22% 69% Median
70 23% 47%  
71 13% 24%  
72 8% 11%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.7% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 5% 98%  
51 13% 93% Majority
52 19% 80%  
53 18% 61% Median
54 18% 43%  
55 12% 24%  
56 9% 12%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.8% 0.9%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 6% 97%  
50 11% 92%  
51 20% 81% Majority
52 20% 61% Median
53 19% 41%  
54 13% 22%  
55 6% 9%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.6%  
44 4% 98%  
45 8% 94%  
46 16% 86%  
47 22% 70% Median
48 17% 48%  
49 17% 31%  
50 10% 14%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.5%  
43 5% 98%  
44 14% 93%  
45 15% 79%  
46 22% 64% Median
47 19% 43%  
48 12% 23%  
49 8% 12%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.7% 0.9% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 6% 98%  
43 12% 92%  
44 16% 80%  
45 24% 64% Last Result, Median
46 18% 40%  
47 12% 22%  
48 6% 10%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.1% 99.8%  
35 3% 98.7%  
36 9% 95%  
37 17% 87%  
38 19% 69% Median
39 19% 50%  
40 13% 30%  
41 12% 18%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.0% 99.7%  
34 4% 98.7%  
35 9% 95%  
36 14% 85%  
37 21% 71% Median
38 23% 51%  
39 14% 27%  
40 7% 13%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.2% 1.5%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.8%  
28 4% 98.8%  
29 11% 95%  
30 19% 84%  
31 22% 65% Median
32 18% 43%  
33 14% 25%  
34 7% 11%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.2%  
29 7% 96%  
30 18% 89%  
31 22% 71% Median
32 18% 50%  
33 18% 32%  
34 10% 14%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.0% 1.3%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.1%  
28 8% 96%  
29 16% 88%  
30 21% 72% Median
31 25% 51%  
32 15% 27%  
33 7% 12%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.8% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.8%  
27 9% 95%  
28 20% 85%  
29 23% 65% Last Result, Median
30 21% 42%  
31 12% 22%  
32 7% 10%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations