Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–8 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Eesti Reformierakond 34 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.7%  
25 5% 98%  
26 12% 94%  
27 20% 82%  
28 27% 62% Median
29 17% 35%  
30 11% 18%  
31 5% 7%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9%  
19 4% 98.8%  
20 13% 94%  
21 23% 81%  
22 22% 59% Median
23 21% 36%  
24 10% 15%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.9% 1.1%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 5% 99.0%  
20 11% 94%  
21 22% 83%  
22 25% 61% Median
23 21% 36%  
24 9% 15%  
25 4% 5%  
26 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 13% 97%  
12 27% 84%  
13 34% 57% Median
14 16% 23%  
15 6% 7%  
16 1.3% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 6% 99.6%  
8 25% 93%  
9 39% 68% Median
10 22% 29% Last Result
11 7% 8%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 14% 98.8%  
7 38% 85% Median
8 33% 47%  
9 11% 13%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 79 72 100% 70–74 69–75 68–75 67–76
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 58 100% 55–60 54–60 54–61 53–62
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 100% 55–60 54–60 54–61 53–62
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 50 38% 48–52 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 50 37% 48–52 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–41 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 38 0% 36–41 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 35–39 34–40 34–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 31 0% 29–33 28–34 27–34 27–35
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 29 0% 27–32 27–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.5%  
69 4% 97%  
70 14% 93%  
71 19% 79%  
72 27% 60% Median
73 17% 33%  
74 11% 16%  
75 4% 5%  
76 1.3% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.6%  
54 4% 98%  
55 10% 94%  
56 18% 85%  
57 16% 66% Last Result, Median
58 23% 51%  
59 16% 28%  
60 8% 12%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.1% 1.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 1.4% 99.5%  
54 4% 98%  
55 10% 94%  
56 15% 84%  
57 23% 69% Median
58 19% 46%  
59 16% 28%  
60 7% 12%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.9% 1.2%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
46 2% 99.1%  
47 6% 97%  
48 13% 91%  
49 19% 78%  
50 21% 60% Median
51 18% 38% Majority
52 12% 20%  
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 3% 99.2%  
47 6% 97%  
48 13% 90%  
49 20% 78%  
50 20% 58% Median
51 17% 37% Majority
52 11% 20%  
53 6% 9% Last Result
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.1%  
41 7% 96%  
42 12% 89%  
43 19% 77%  
44 21% 58% Median
45 20% 37%  
46 10% 17%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.7%  
35 4% 98.5%  
36 11% 95%  
37 13% 84%  
38 23% 70% Median
39 19% 47%  
40 16% 28%  
41 8% 12%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.9% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.3% 99.7%  
35 4% 98%  
36 8% 94%  
37 18% 86%  
38 20% 67% Median
39 21% 47%  
40 15% 27%  
41 8% 12%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 6% 98%  
35 10% 92%  
36 22% 82%  
37 23% 60% Median
38 18% 37%  
39 11% 19%  
40 6% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 5% 98%  
29 15% 93%  
30 18% 78%  
31 24% 60% Median
32 18% 37%  
33 12% 19%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 6% 97%  
29 12% 92%  
30 24% 80%  
31 17% 56% Median
32 22% 39%  
33 10% 17%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.8%  
26 3% 98.9%  
27 10% 96%  
28 16% 86%  
29 22% 70% Median
30 25% 48%  
31 13% 23%  
32 7% 10%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations