Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 4–9 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 20 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.0%  
21 12% 96%  
22 23% 84%  
23 25% 61% Median
24 17% 36%  
25 12% 19%  
26 5% 7%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.8%  
18 6% 98%  
19 18% 92% Last Result
20 23% 75%  
21 25% 52% Median
22 17% 27%  
23 7% 10%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 6% 98%  
19 15% 92%  
20 29% 77% Median
21 21% 48%  
22 17% 28%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 9% 97%  
17 21% 88%  
18 28% 67% Median
19 21% 39%  
20 12% 18%  
21 4% 5%  
22 1.0% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.9% 100%  
8 9% 99.1%  
9 26% 90%  
10 35% 64% Last Result, Median
11 21% 28%  
12 6% 7%  
13 1.2% 1.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 9% 99.0%  
8 33% 90%  
9 36% 58% Median
10 16% 21%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 62 100% 59–64 59–65 58–65 57–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 84% 50–55 49–56 49–56 48–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 6% 45–50 44–51 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 41 0% 39–44 38–44 38–45 37–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–45 37–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–36 28–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.7% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.0%  
59 8% 96%  
60 13% 89%  
61 18% 75%  
62 22% 57% Median
63 18% 35%  
64 10% 17%  
65 5% 7%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.5%  
49 4% 98%  
50 10% 94%  
51 17% 84% Majority
52 20% 67%  
53 19% 46% Median
54 14% 27%  
55 8% 13%  
56 4% 5%  
57 1.1% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.2% 99.6%  
44 4% 98%  
45 8% 95%  
46 18% 86%  
47 17% 68%  
48 22% 51% Median
49 16% 29%  
50 7% 13%  
51 4% 6% Majority
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 1.0% 99.7%  
40 3% 98.7%  
41 8% 95%  
42 17% 87%  
43 19% 71%  
44 21% 52% Median
45 15% 31%  
46 10% 17%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 5% 98%  
39 10% 93%  
40 21% 83%  
41 20% 62% Median
42 17% 42%  
43 13% 25%  
44 8% 12%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 1.0%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.8%  
38 3% 98.9%  
39 8% 96%  
40 14% 88%  
41 20% 74%  
42 23% 54% Median
43 16% 31%  
44 10% 16%  
45 4% 6%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 7% 97%  
37 14% 89%  
38 20% 75%  
39 21% 55% Median
40 18% 34%  
41 9% 16%  
42 5% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 6% 97%  
35 13% 91%  
36 20% 78%  
37 25% 57% Median
38 16% 33%  
39 10% 17%  
40 5% 7%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 7% 98%  
31 11% 91%  
32 20% 80%  
33 25% 60% Median
34 16% 35%  
35 11% 19%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 7% 97%  
30 15% 90%  
31 19% 75%  
32 23% 56% Median
33 17% 33%  
34 10% 16%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.8%  
27 4% 99.2%  
28 7% 95%  
29 19% 88% Last Result
30 16% 68%  
31 26% 52% Median
32 11% 26%  
33 10% 14%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.7%  
25 5% 98%  
26 11% 94%  
27 19% 82%  
28 24% 63% Median
29 21% 40%  
30 12% 19%  
31 5% 7%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations