Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 11–17 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.9–21.9% 17.5–22.3% 16.8–23.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.9–21.9% 17.5–22.3% 16.8–23.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 18.9% 17.4–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.6–21.3% 15.9–22.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.9% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.8% 13.8–18.2% 13.2–19.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.9% 10.7–13.2% 10.3–13.6% 10.0–14.0% 9.5–14.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.9% 8.8–11.1% 8.5–11.5% 8.2–11.8% 7.7–12.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 18–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 18–25
Eesti 200 0 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 17–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Erakond Isamaa 12 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–13
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 9% 97%  
20 18% 88%  
21 24% 70% Median
22 25% 46%  
23 15% 22%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 7% 97% Last Result
20 19% 90%  
21 27% 71% Median
22 22% 44%  
23 15% 22%  
24 6% 8%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 13% 97%  
19 21% 84%  
20 23% 63% Median
21 17% 40%  
22 17% 23%  
23 4% 6%  
24 1.2% 1.3%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.8% 100%  
14 5% 99.2%  
15 15% 94%  
16 27% 80%  
17 27% 53% Median
18 17% 26%  
19 7% 9%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.9%  
10 10% 98.6% Last Result
11 25% 88%  
12 33% 64% Median
13 21% 31%  
14 8% 9%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 13% 98%  
9 32% 86%  
10 34% 54% Median
11 16% 20%  
12 3% 4% Last Result
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 59 100% 57–62 56–62 56–63 55–64
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 84% 50–55 49–55 49–56 48–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 7% 45–50 44–51 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–40 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 38 0% 36–40 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 38 0% 36–40 35–41 34–41 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 5% 98%  
57 10% 93%  
58 17% 83%  
59 20% 66% Median
60 20% 47%  
61 15% 27%  
62 8% 12%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.9% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 99.5%  
49 6% 98%  
50 9% 93%  
51 19% 84% Majority
52 18% 65% Median
53 21% 47%  
54 15% 26%  
55 7% 11%  
56 3% 4%  
57 1.1% 1.3%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.0% 99.7%  
44 4% 98.7%  
45 7% 94%  
46 15% 87%  
47 19% 72%  
48 21% 53% Median
49 16% 31%  
50 9% 15%  
51 5% 7% Majority
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 6% 97%  
41 14% 91%  
42 20% 77%  
43 19% 57% Median
44 21% 38%  
45 10% 17%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 3% 99.0%  
40 8% 96%  
41 14% 88%  
42 19% 74% Median
43 25% 55%  
44 14% 31%  
45 10% 16%  
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 1.0% 99.5%  
35 7% 98.5%  
36 7% 92%  
37 22% 85%  
38 16% 63%  
39 25% 47% Median
40 13% 22%  
41 6% 9%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 6% 97%  
36 12% 91%  
37 20% 79%  
38 19% 59% Median
39 20% 40%  
40 11% 20%  
41 6% 9%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 6% 97%  
36 11% 92%  
37 22% 80%  
38 20% 59% Median
39 18% 39%  
40 13% 21%  
41 5% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
30 5% 98.7%  
31 10% 94%  
32 15% 83%  
33 23% 68% Median
34 20% 45%  
35 15% 25%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.1% 99.8%  
30 4% 98.6%  
31 10% 94%  
32 19% 85%  
33 23% 66% Median
34 18% 43%  
35 15% 25%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 6% 98%  
29 11% 92%  
30 21% 81%  
31 22% 60% Median
32 20% 37%  
33 11% 18%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 9% 97%  
27 15% 88%  
28 23% 73%  
29 20% 50% Median
30 17% 30%  
31 9% 13%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations