Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 23–29 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.3–23.5% 18.9–23.9% 18.1–24.8%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.8–22.0% 17.4–22.4% 16.7–23.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Eesti Reformierakond 34 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 5% 99.1%  
22 11% 95%  
23 20% 84%  
24 28% 64% Median
25 18% 36%  
26 11% 18% Last Result
27 5% 7%  
28 1.0% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.8% Last Result
20 5% 98.7%  
21 14% 94%  
22 21% 80%  
23 25% 59% Median
24 20% 35%  
25 10% 15%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.9% 1.1%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.3%  
19 11% 96%  
20 20% 85%  
21 28% 64% Median
22 20% 36%  
23 11% 17%  
24 4% 5%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.9%  
14 5% 99.0%  
15 17% 94%  
16 27% 77% Median
17 27% 50%  
18 14% 23%  
19 7% 8%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 8% 99.3%  
8 27% 92%  
9 39% 64% Median
10 19% 25% Last Result
11 5% 6%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 10% 99.3%  
7 35% 89%  
8 36% 54% Median
9 15% 19%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 79 68 100% 66–70 65–71 64–71 63–72
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 55 98.5% 52–57 52–58 51–58 50–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 73% 49–54 49–55 48–55 47–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 47 3% 45–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 45 0.2% 43–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 40 0% 38–43 38–44 37–44 36–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 38 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–36 29–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 30 0% 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–34
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 29 0% 27–31 26–32 25–32 24–33

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 2% 99.3%  
65 6% 97%  
66 12% 92%  
67 18% 79%  
68 24% 61% Median
69 18% 37%  
70 12% 19%  
71 5% 7%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 1.2% 99.7%  
51 3% 98.5% Majority
52 10% 96%  
53 15% 86%  
54 20% 72%  
55 21% 52% Median
56 16% 30%  
57 9% 15% Last Result
58 4% 6%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 1.1% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.6%  
49 10% 95%  
50 13% 86%  
51 21% 73% Majority
52 21% 51% Median
53 15% 30%  
54 9% 15%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.3%  
44 6% 97%  
45 13% 91% Last Result
46 18% 78%  
47 26% 60% Median
48 12% 34%  
49 14% 21%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 6% 97%  
43 13% 92%  
44 15% 79%  
45 27% 64% Median
46 13% 37%  
47 16% 25%  
48 5% 8%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.3%  
41 6% 97%  
42 16% 91%  
43 14% 75%  
44 26% 62% Median
45 15% 36%  
46 13% 21%  
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.8%  
37 4% 98.9%  
38 8% 95%  
39 15% 88%  
40 23% 73%  
41 19% 50% Median
42 17% 31%  
43 9% 14%  
44 4% 5%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.7%  
34 3% 98.9%  
35 9% 96%  
36 14% 87%  
37 22% 74%  
38 20% 51% Median
39 18% 31%  
40 8% 13%  
41 4% 5%  
42 1.1% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 6% 98%  
31 12% 92%  
32 20% 79%  
33 23% 59% Median
34 18% 36%  
35 11% 18%  
36 5% 7% Last Result
37 2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.4%  
29 7% 97% Last Result
30 14% 90%  
31 20% 76%  
32 22% 56% Median
33 19% 34%  
34 9% 15%  
35 5% 6%  
36 1.3% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 5% 98%  
28 13% 93%  
29 21% 80%  
30 22% 59% Median
31 19% 37%  
32 12% 18%  
33 4% 5%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 7% 97%  
27 13% 90%  
28 23% 77%  
29 22% 54% Median
30 18% 32%  
31 8% 13%  
32 4% 5%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations