Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 30 November–7 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.2% 20.6–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.8% 18.1–24.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.2% 18.7–21.9% 18.2–22.4% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 18.1% 16.7–19.8% 16.2–20.2% 15.9–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti Reformierakond 34 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100% Last Result
20 1.0% 99.8%  
21 5% 98.8%  
22 11% 94%  
23 23% 83%  
24 26% 60% Median
25 19% 34%  
26 10% 16%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.5% 99.7%  
20 6% 98%  
21 14% 92%  
22 24% 78%  
23 23% 54% Median
24 18% 31%  
25 9% 13%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 7% 98%  
20 18% 91%  
21 25% 73% Median
22 22% 48%  
23 16% 25%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 12% 96%  
18 23% 85%  
19 26% 62% Median
20 22% 36%  
21 10% 14%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 12% 98.9%  
7 35% 87%  
8 35% 52% Median
9 14% 17%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.7% 99.8%  
5 16% 99.1%  
6 41% 84% Median
7 33% 43%  
8 9% 10%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 68 100% 66–70 65–71 65–71 64–72
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 91% 51–55 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 75% 49–54 49–55 48–55 47–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 47 2% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.3% 43–48 42–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 44 0% 42–46 41–47 41–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 30 0% 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 2% 99.6%  
65 4% 98%  
66 12% 94%  
67 16% 81%  
68 25% 65% Median
69 18% 40%  
70 15% 22%  
71 5% 7%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 5% 97%  
51 15% 91% Majority
52 17% 77%  
53 20% 60% Median
54 19% 40%  
55 11% 21%  
56 7% 10%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.8% 99.7%  
48 3% 99.0%  
49 7% 96%  
50 14% 89%  
51 22% 75% Median, Majority
52 18% 53%  
53 18% 35%  
54 10% 18%  
55 5% 7%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.0% 99.7%  
43 3% 98.8%  
44 8% 96%  
45 16% 88%  
46 21% 72%  
47 18% 51% Median
48 16% 33%  
49 11% 17%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 99.7%  
42 3% 98%  
43 11% 95%  
44 16% 84%  
45 20% 68% Last Result, Median
46 20% 49%  
47 16% 28%  
48 8% 12%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.0% 1.3%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 1.4% 99.3%  
41 5% 98%  
42 11% 93%  
43 17% 82%  
44 22% 65% Median
45 18% 42%  
46 15% 25%  
47 6% 9%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 8% 96%  
35 15% 88%  
36 20% 73%  
37 21% 53% Median
38 16% 31%  
39 10% 15%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.7%  
32 4% 98.6%  
33 9% 95%  
34 17% 86%  
35 22% 69% Median
36 20% 47%  
37 16% 28%  
38 7% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 1.0% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 7% 96% Last Result
30 16% 88%  
31 24% 73%  
32 21% 49% Median
33 16% 28%  
34 9% 12%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.9% 1.1%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.2% 99.8%  
27 4% 98.6%  
28 10% 94%  
29 17% 84%  
30 21% 68%  
31 23% 47% Median
32 15% 24%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.7%  
26 5% 98.5%  
27 11% 93%  
28 20% 82%  
29 24% 62% Median
30 17% 38%  
31 14% 21%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.7%  
26 5% 98%  
27 12% 94%  
28 19% 82%  
29 24% 63% Median
30 17% 38%  
31 14% 21%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations