Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 7–13 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.7% 17.2–20.4% 16.8–20.8% 16.4–21.2% 15.7–22.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–32 27–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.9%  
26 3% 98.9%  
27 10% 96%  
28 19% 85%  
29 20% 67% Median
30 22% 47%  
31 14% 24%  
32 8% 11%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100% Last Result
20 2% 99.7%  
21 6% 98%  
22 15% 92%  
23 24% 78%  
24 26% 53% Median
25 16% 28%  
26 8% 12%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 8% 98%  
18 20% 89%  
19 25% 69% Median
20 23% 44%  
21 14% 20%  
22 5% 6%  
23 1.2% 1.4%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.8% 100%  
12 4% 99.1%  
13 16% 95%  
14 33% 79% Median
15 25% 46%  
16 15% 20%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 20% 98%  
7 43% 78% Median
8 27% 36%  
9 8% 9%  
10 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 22% 97%  
7 45% 75% Median
8 23% 30%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 70–74 70–75 69–76 68–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 58–62 57–63 56–63 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 92% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 41% 48–52 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 49 15% 46–51 45–52 45–52 44–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–47 39–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–39 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–29 24–29 23–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 1.0% 99.8%  
69 4% 98.7%  
70 8% 95%  
71 20% 87%  
72 21% 67% Median
73 23% 45%  
74 15% 22%  
75 5% 8%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.5% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.3%  
57 5% 97%  
58 11% 92%  
59 18% 81%  
60 25% 63% Median
61 15% 39%  
62 15% 23%  
63 6% 8%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 6% 97%  
51 11% 92% Majority
52 21% 81%  
53 27% 60% Last Result, Median
54 11% 33%  
55 11% 22%  
56 8% 11%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 6% 97%  
48 13% 91%  
49 18% 79%  
50 19% 61% Median
51 22% 41% Majority
52 10% 19%  
53 6% 9%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 1.3% 99.7%  
45 4% 98%  
46 8% 95%  
47 16% 87%  
48 19% 71% Median
49 19% 53%  
50 18% 33%  
51 10% 15% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 1.0% 99.8%  
40 3% 98.8%  
41 7% 95%  
42 16% 88%  
43 18% 73% Median
44 24% 54%  
45 15% 31%  
46 9% 15%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 6% 97%  
41 13% 91%  
42 17% 78%  
43 25% 61% Median
44 17% 36%  
45 12% 19% Last Result
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.7%  
33 4% 98.6%  
34 8% 95%  
35 18% 86%  
36 18% 68% Median
37 24% 50%  
38 14% 26%  
39 8% 12%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.8%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 10% 96%  
35 17% 87%  
36 17% 70% Median
37 24% 53%  
38 15% 29%  
39 9% 14%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.0% 1.4%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9%  
30 4% 99.1%  
31 7% 95%  
32 13% 88%  
33 23% 75% Median
34 24% 53%  
35 16% 29%  
36 9% 13%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.8% 1.1%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 5% 98%  
29 13% 93% Last Result
30 23% 80%  
31 24% 57% Median
32 17% 34%  
33 10% 17%  
34 4% 6%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 8% 97%  
25 16% 89%  
26 24% 73% Median
27 23% 49%  
28 15% 26%  
29 8% 11%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations