Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 9–15 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0% 19.7–24.4% 19.1–25.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 20.0% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–22.0% 17.8–22.3% 17.2–23.1%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.3–22.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–19.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.8% 8.0–12.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.5% 5.3–9.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 23–26 22–27 21–27 21–28
Eesti 200 0 22 20–24 20–24 19–25 18–25
Eesti Reformierakond 34 21 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–20 16–20 15–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 8–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.4% 100%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 7% 97%  
23 17% 90%  
24 29% 73% Median
25 25% 44%  
26 12% 19%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.3%  
20 12% 96%  
21 24% 84%  
22 30% 59% Median
23 18% 30%  
24 8% 11%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.8%  
19 16% 94%  
20 27% 78%  
21 25% 50% Median
22 17% 25%  
23 6% 8%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 9% 98%  
17 24% 89%  
18 31% 65% Median
19 23% 34%  
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 6% 99.6%  
9 34% 94%  
10 43% 59% Last Result, Median
11 14% 16%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 12% 99.6%  
6 42% 88% Median
7 35% 46%  
8 9% 10%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 2% 4%  
5 1.2% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 63 100% 61–65 60–66 59–66 58–67
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 51 69% 49–53 48–54 48–55 46–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 15% 46–51 46–52 45–52 44–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 45 0% 43–47 42–48 41–48 40–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–44 39–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 39 0% 36–41 36–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 37 0% 35–39 34–39 34–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–36 32–36 31–37 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–37 30–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 30 0% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–29 26–30 25–30 24–32
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 27 0% 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–31

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 7% 97%  
61 10% 90%  
62 21% 80%  
63 22% 59% Median
64 19% 37%  
65 12% 17%  
66 4% 6%  
67 1.2% 1.4%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.4%  
48 4% 98%  
49 9% 94%  
50 16% 86%  
51 22% 69% Median, Majority
52 25% 48%  
53 13% 23%  
54 7% 10%  
55 3% 3%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 7% 97%  
47 14% 90%  
48 18% 76% Median
49 23% 57%  
50 19% 34%  
51 10% 15% Majority
52 4% 5%  
53 1.0% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 6% 97%  
43 11% 91%  
44 21% 80%  
45 23% 59% Median
46 19% 36%  
47 10% 16%  
48 5% 6%  
49 1.2% 1.5%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.7%  
39 4% 98%  
40 9% 95%  
41 17% 85%  
42 20% 68% Median
43 24% 48%  
44 14% 24%  
45 7% 10% Last Result
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.3%  
36 7% 97%  
37 16% 89%  
38 22% 73%  
39 23% 52% Median
40 17% 28%  
41 8% 11%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 6% 98%  
35 14% 92%  
36 23% 78%  
37 23% 55% Median
38 20% 32%  
39 8% 12%  
40 4% 4%  
41 0.7% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.6% 99.7%  
31 2% 99.1%  
32 8% 97%  
33 20% 89%  
34 29% 69% Median
35 25% 40%  
36 10% 14%  
37 3% 4%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100% Last Result
30 1.2% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 12% 94%  
33 18% 83%  
34 26% 64% Median
35 21% 39%  
36 11% 18%  
37 5% 6%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 9% 97%  
29 19% 88%  
30 25% 69%  
31 24% 44% Median
32 14% 21%  
33 5% 6%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.0%  
26 12% 97%  
27 28% 85%  
28 33% 57% Median
29 16% 23%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.9% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.8%  
24 4% 98.9%  
25 12% 95%  
26 19% 83%  
27 28% 64% Median
28 21% 36%  
29 10% 15%  
30 4% 5%  
31 1.1% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations