Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–20 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.2% 21.0–28.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.0–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.0–20.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 26 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.3%  
24 9% 97%  
25 19% 87%  
26 22% 68% Median
27 18% 46%  
28 17% 29%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.9% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.8%  
21 5% 98%  
22 14% 93%  
23 21% 79%  
24 22% 58% Median
25 20% 36%  
26 10% 16% Last Result
27 4% 6%  
28 1.1% 1.4%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 10% 97% Last Result
20 20% 87%  
21 24% 67% Median
22 23% 43%  
23 13% 20%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 7% 98.6%  
16 16% 91%  
17 28% 75% Median
18 24% 47%  
19 15% 23%  
20 6% 8%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 19% 98%  
7 41% 79% Median
8 28% 38%  
9 8% 10%  
10 1.3% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 11% 91%  
5 50% 79% Median
6 25% 29%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 72 100% 69–74 68–75 68–76 67–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 98.9% 52–58 52–58 51–59 50–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 81% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 46% 48–53 47–54 47–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 8% 45–50 44–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.6% 42–48 42–49 41–49 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 38 0% 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 36 0% 33–39 32–39 31–40 30–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 31 0% 29–34 28–34 27–35 25–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 26–31 25–32 24–32 22–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 23–28 22–29 21–29 20–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 1.2% 99.7%  
68 4% 98.5%  
69 9% 95%  
70 17% 86%  
71 18% 69% Median
72 24% 51%  
73 13% 26%  
74 6% 14%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.9% 99.7%  
51 3% 98.9% Majority
52 7% 96%  
53 13% 89%  
54 20% 76% Median
55 19% 56%  
56 18% 37%  
57 8% 19%  
58 6% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 6% 97%  
50 10% 91%  
51 15% 81% Majority
52 19% 66% Median
53 18% 47%  
54 14% 29%  
55 9% 15%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.7% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 5% 98%  
48 11% 92%  
49 16% 81%  
50 19% 65% Median
51 20% 46% Majority
52 13% 26%  
53 7% 14%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.6%  
44 4% 98%  
45 8% 94%  
46 12% 86%  
47 23% 74% Median
48 20% 52%  
49 15% 31%  
50 8% 16%  
51 4% 8% Majority
52 2% 4%  
53 1.2% 2% Last Result
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 7% 97%  
43 12% 89%  
44 18% 78%  
45 15% 60% Last Result, Median
46 21% 45%  
47 14% 24%  
48 5% 10%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.5%  
34 2% 98%  
35 4% 96%  
36 9% 92%  
37 14% 84%  
38 20% 70% Median
39 19% 50%  
40 14% 31%  
41 10% 16%  
42 5% 7%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.8%  
32 3% 97%  
33 5% 94%  
34 10% 89%  
35 20% 79%  
36 19% 59% Median
37 20% 40%  
38 9% 20%  
39 7% 11%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.9% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.1%  
31 7% 96%  
32 17% 89%  
33 20% 72% Median
34 21% 53%  
35 15% 32%  
36 10% 17%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.1%  
27 2% 98%  
28 4% 95%  
29 9% 91%  
30 17% 82%  
31 20% 65% Median
32 17% 45%  
33 15% 28%  
34 8% 12%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 1.1% 99.5%  
24 2% 98%  
25 3% 96%  
26 6% 93%  
27 12% 87%  
28 20% 75%  
29 19% 55% Median
30 19% 36%  
31 10% 16%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.0% 99.7%  
21 2% 98.7%  
22 3% 97%  
23 4% 94%  
24 9% 90%  
25 16% 81%  
26 22% 64% Median
27 19% 42%  
28 14% 22%  
29 6% 8% Last Result
30 2% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations