Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 12–17 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.1% 22.3–26.0% 21.8–26.5% 21.3–27.0% 20.5–28.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.0% 18.4–21.9% 17.9–22.4% 17.5–22.8% 16.8–23.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 20.0% 18.4–21.9% 17.9–22.4% 17.5–22.8% 16.8–23.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 18.0% 16.4–19.7% 16.0–20.2% 15.6–20.7% 14.8–21.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.6–9.7% 6.4–10.0% 5.9–10.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.0–9.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–26
Eesti 200 0 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–26
Eesti Reformierakond 34 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 5% 98%  
24 13% 93%  
25 19% 80%  
26 22% 62% Median
27 19% 40%  
28 12% 21%  
29 6% 9%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.1%  
19 10% 96%  
20 20% 86%  
21 24% 66% Median
22 21% 42%  
23 14% 22%  
24 6% 8%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.0%  
19 9% 96%  
20 20% 87%  
21 27% 68% Median
22 20% 40%  
23 12% 21%  
24 6% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.8%  
16 5% 98.6%  
17 14% 93%  
18 24% 79%  
19 24% 56% Median
20 18% 31%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 16% 98%  
7 36% 82% Median
8 31% 46%  
9 12% 15%  
10 2% 3% Last Result
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 1.3% 99.5%  
5 17% 98%  
6 40% 81% Median
7 31% 41%  
8 9% 11%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 79 66 100% 64–69 63–69 62–70 61–71
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 54 94% 51–56 50–57 50–58 48–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 51 62% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 47 6% 45–50 44–51 43–51 42–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 45 0.3% 42–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 40 0% 38–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 31–36 30–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 32 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–33
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 26 0% 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 25 0% 23–27 22–28 22–29 20–30

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 6% 97%  
64 12% 91%  
65 17% 78%  
66 21% 61% Median
67 19% 41%  
68 12% 22%  
69 7% 10%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.8% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 4% 98%  
51 8% 94% Majority
52 14% 86%  
53 19% 71% Median
54 20% 52%  
55 15% 31%  
56 10% 17%  
57 5% 7% Last Result
58 2% 3%  
59 0.6% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.7%  
47 2% 98.9%  
48 6% 97%  
49 12% 90%  
50 17% 79%  
51 17% 62% Median, Majority
52 20% 44%  
53 12% 24%  
54 7% 12%  
55 3% 4%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.2%  
44 5% 97%  
45 10% 92% Last Result
46 16% 82%  
47 21% 65% Median
48 19% 45%  
49 11% 25%  
50 8% 14%  
51 4% 6% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.1% 99.7%  
41 3% 98.6%  
42 8% 95%  
43 13% 87%  
44 18% 74%  
45 19% 56% Median
46 16% 37%  
47 12% 21%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.0%  
37 7% 97%  
38 14% 90%  
39 17% 76%  
40 18% 59% Median
41 18% 41%  
42 13% 23%  
43 6% 10%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.2%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 3% 98.9%  
32 6% 96%  
33 13% 90%  
34 17% 78% Median
35 21% 60%  
36 19% 39%  
37 11% 20%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
30 5% 98.7%  
31 7% 94%  
32 20% 86%  
33 15% 66% Median
34 20% 51%  
35 18% 31%  
36 7% 13%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.8% 1.4%  
39 0.6% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 1.1% 99.5%  
29 4% 98%  
30 9% 95%  
31 14% 86%  
32 22% 72% Median
33 20% 49%  
34 15% 29%  
35 9% 15%  
36 4% 5%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.1%  
26 8% 96%  
27 16% 89%  
28 20% 73% Median
29 22% 53%  
30 17% 32%  
31 9% 15%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.7%  
23 4% 98.5%  
24 11% 94%  
25 18% 83%  
26 23% 65% Median
27 19% 42%  
28 13% 23%  
29 6% 9%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 1.4% 99.4%  
22 5% 98%  
23 11% 93%  
24 19% 82%  
25 24% 63% Median
26 18% 39%  
27 13% 21%  
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.5% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations