Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 13–21 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.6% 20.1–23.1% 19.7–23.6% 19.3–24.0% 18.7–24.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.6% 18.2–21.1% 17.8–21.5% 17.5–21.9% 16.8–22.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 19.6% 18.2–21.1% 17.8–21.5% 17.5–21.9% 16.8–22.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 18.6% 17.2–20.1% 16.8–20.5% 16.5–20.9% 15.9–21.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.9% 7.9–10.0% 7.6–10.3% 7.4–10.6% 6.9–11.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.9% 6.0–7.9% 5.8–8.2% 5.6–8.5% 5.2–9.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 18–25
Eesti 200 0 21 19–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Eesti Reformierakond 34 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 17–24
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100% Last Result
20 1.3% 99.8%  
21 6% 98.5%  
22 15% 92%  
23 24% 77%  
24 27% 54% Median
25 17% 26%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 9% 97%  
20 19% 88%  
21 28% 70% Median
22 25% 41%  
23 13% 16%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.9% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 12% 98%  
20 13% 86%  
21 31% 73% Median
22 30% 42%  
23 6% 12%  
24 6% 7%  
25 0.7% 0.9%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.6%  
18 11% 97%  
19 22% 86%  
20 30% 64% Median
21 20% 34%  
22 10% 14%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 13% 99.2%  
8 39% 86% Median
9 31% 47%  
10 14% 16%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.5% 99.8%  
5 12% 99.3%  
6 46% 87% Median
7 34% 42%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 3% 4%  
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 79 65 100% 63–67 62–68 61–68 60–69
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 94% 51–55 50–56 50–57 49–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 83% 50–54 49–55 49–55 47–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.1% 43–47 42–48 41–48 40–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 44 0% 41–46 41–46 40–47 39–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 41 0% 39–43 38–44 38–45 37–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 36 0% 34–38 33–39 33–39 32–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–34
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 28 0% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 26–29 25–30 24–31 24–31
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 26 0% 24–28 24–29 23–29 22–30

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.0%  
62 6% 97%  
63 12% 91%  
64 20% 78%  
65 25% 58% Median
66 20% 33%  
67 9% 14%  
68 4% 5%  
69 1.0% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 1.4% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 10% 94% Majority
52 16% 84%  
53 24% 68% Median
54 18% 44%  
55 16% 26%  
56 7% 10%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.5%  
49 6% 98%  
50 9% 92%  
51 21% 83% Majority
52 18% 62% Median
53 25% 44%  
54 10% 19%  
55 7% 9%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 3% 99.3%  
42 5% 97%  
43 14% 91%  
44 21% 77%  
45 22% 56% Last Result, Median
46 19% 34%  
47 10% 16%  
48 4% 5%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.1%  
41 8% 96%  
42 14% 89%  
43 23% 75%  
44 22% 52% Median
45 17% 29%  
46 8% 13%  
47 3% 5%  
48 0.9% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.7%  
38 5% 98%  
39 9% 94%  
40 20% 84%  
41 20% 65% Median
42 23% 44%  
43 14% 21%  
44 5% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 5% 98%  
34 10% 94%  
35 21% 83% Median
36 23% 62%  
37 21% 39%  
38 12% 18%  
39 5% 7%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 5% 98%  
33 13% 93%  
34 21% 79% Median
35 26% 58%  
36 16% 32%  
37 11% 17%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 1.2% 99.7%  
27 5% 98%  
28 12% 94%  
29 19% 82% Last Result
30 26% 62% Median
31 21% 36%  
32 10% 16%  
33 4% 5%  
34 1.1% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 7% 98%  
27 16% 90%  
28 25% 74% Median
29 24% 49%  
30 14% 25%  
31 7% 10%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 6% 97%  
26 16% 92%  
27 27% 76% Median
28 23% 49%  
29 16% 26%  
30 7% 10%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.4%  
24 8% 97%  
25 19% 89%  
26 25% 70% Median
27 23% 45%  
28 14% 22%  
29 6% 8%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations