Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25–31 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 27.7% 25.9–29.6% 25.4–30.1% 25.0–30.6% 24.2–31.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 30 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Reformierakond 34 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 12% 97%  
29 23% 85%  
30 21% 62% Median
31 15% 41%  
32 12% 26%  
33 9% 13%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 1.4%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 6% 98%  
23 14% 92%  
24 22% 78%  
25 22% 56% Median
26 18% 33% Last Result
27 10% 15%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.1% 1.5%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 3% 99.3%  
17 13% 96%  
18 23% 83%  
19 24% 60% Median
20 23% 36%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 8% 98.6%  
15 18% 91%  
16 29% 73% Median
17 25% 44%  
18 14% 19%  
19 4% 6%  
20 1.0% 1.3%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 0% 98.5%  
2 0% 98.5%  
3 0% 98.5%  
4 3% 98.5%  
5 30% 95%  
6 44% 65% Median
7 18% 21%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 11% 92%  
5 50% 81% Median
6 27% 31%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 79 74 100% 72–77 71–78 71–79 70–81
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 61 100% 58–63 58–64 57–65 56–67
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 55 99.3% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 98.7% 52–58 52–58 51–59 50–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 49 28% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 44 0.2% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 36 0% 33–38 32–38 31–39 29–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 33–38 32–38 31–39 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–33 23–34
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 30 0% 27–32 26–32 24–33 23–34
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 25 0% 23–27 22–27 21–28 19–29
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 24 0% 21–26 20–27 19–27 17–28

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 1.3% 99.5%  
71 6% 98%  
72 13% 92%  
73 21% 79%  
74 22% 58% Median
75 16% 36%  
76 9% 19%  
77 4% 10%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.5% 3% Last Result
80 0.9% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.6%  
57 3% 98.6% Last Result
58 7% 96%  
59 14% 89%  
60 18% 74%  
61 20% 57% Median
62 17% 37%  
63 10% 19%  
64 5% 10%  
65 3% 4%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.6% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.3% Majority
52 7% 97%  
53 10% 90%  
54 20% 80%  
55 21% 60% Median
56 15% 39%  
57 12% 23%  
58 6% 12%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.7% Majority
52 8% 97%  
53 14% 89%  
54 19% 75%  
55 15% 56% Median
56 16% 41%  
57 14% 25%  
58 7% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.4%  
46 5% 98.5%  
47 17% 94%  
48 16% 77%  
49 19% 61% Median
50 14% 42%  
51 14% 28% Majority
52 8% 14%  
53 3% 6% Last Result
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 1.0% 99.7%  
40 3% 98.7%  
41 8% 96%  
42 13% 87%  
43 20% 74%  
44 20% 54% Median
45 17% 34%  
46 10% 17%  
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.1%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 1.3% 98.9%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 7% 92%  
34 11% 84%  
35 20% 73%  
36 22% 53% Median
37 17% 31%  
38 10% 14%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
30 1.4% 99.1%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 11% 92%  
34 19% 81%  
35 18% 62% Median
36 19% 44%  
37 12% 25%  
38 9% 13%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.4%  
25 2% 98%  
26 3% 97%  
27 7% 94%  
28 12% 87%  
29 19% 75%  
30 20% 56% Median
31 19% 35%  
32 10% 17%  
33 5% 6%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.6%  
24 1.4% 98.8%  
25 2% 97%  
26 3% 96%  
27 5% 93%  
28 10% 88%  
29 22% 77%  
30 21% 55% Median
31 20% 34%  
32 9% 14%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.1% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.3% 99.7%  
20 0.6% 99.4%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 5% 97%  
23 14% 92%  
24 23% 78%  
25 22% 55% Median
26 19% 33%  
27 9% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 1.0% 1.3%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.3%  
19 2% 98%  
20 2% 97%  
21 5% 94%  
22 10% 90%  
23 20% 80%  
24 22% 60% Median
25 22% 38%  
26 10% 16%  
27 5% 6%  
28 1.0% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations