Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–7 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.5–23.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.5% 16.1–20.9% 15.4–21.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Eesti 200 0 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.9%  
22 5% 98.8%  
23 10% 94%  
24 18% 84%  
25 27% 65% Median
26 22% 38%  
27 11% 16%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.1% 1.4%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.0% Last Result
20 15% 96%  
21 18% 81%  
22 27% 64% Median
23 22% 37%  
24 9% 14%  
25 4% 5%  
26 1.1% 1.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 7% 98%  
19 18% 90%  
20 25% 72% Median
21 26% 47%  
22 13% 22%  
23 6% 8%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 3% 99.4%  
17 11% 96%  
18 22% 85%  
19 29% 63% Median
20 21% 34%  
21 9% 13%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 7% 99.6%  
7 33% 92%  
8 36% 59% Median
9 19% 23%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 30% 95%  
7 45% 65% Median
8 17% 21%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 67 100% 65–70 64–70 64–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 99.1% 52–57 52–58 51–58 50–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 45% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 47 3% 45–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 45 0.3% 43–48 42–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 40 0% 37–42 37–43 36–43 35–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 4% 98.8%  
65 9% 95%  
66 16% 86%  
67 23% 71% Median
68 19% 47%  
69 18% 28%  
70 7% 11%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.1% Majority
52 8% 97%  
53 12% 89%  
54 21% 77%  
55 22% 56% Median
56 18% 35%  
57 10% 17%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.4%  
47 5% 98%  
48 9% 92%  
49 24% 84%  
50 16% 60% Median
51 23% 45% Majority
52 10% 22%  
53 9% 12%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.1% 1.2%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 7% 97%  
45 11% 91%  
46 16% 79%  
47 23% 63% Median
48 21% 40%  
49 10% 19%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 99.6%  
42 3% 98%  
43 9% 95%  
44 18% 86%  
45 18% 68% Median
46 22% 50%  
47 16% 28%  
48 7% 12%  
49 4% 5%  
50 0.9% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 5% 98.6%  
40 10% 94%  
41 15% 84%  
42 22% 69% Median
43 19% 47%  
44 16% 28%  
45 8% 12% Last Result
46 3% 4%  
47 1.0% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.8%  
36 2% 98.9%  
37 9% 97%  
38 12% 88%  
39 22% 75%  
40 22% 53% Median
41 15% 31%  
42 9% 15%  
43 4% 6%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 5% 98%  
33 10% 93%  
34 22% 83%  
35 24% 61% Median
36 18% 37%  
37 11% 19%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 6% 97%  
31 11% 91%  
32 25% 80%  
33 22% 56% Median
34 18% 34%  
35 10% 16%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.9% 1.4%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 6% 98%  
30 13% 92%  
31 20% 79%  
32 24% 60% Median
33 20% 36%  
34 9% 15%  
35 5% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 6% 98%  
27 13% 92%  
28 21% 79%  
29 24% 58% Last Result, Median
30 19% 34%  
31 10% 14%  
32 3% 5%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.1%  
25 9% 96%  
26 19% 87%  
27 26% 68% Median
28 22% 42%  
29 12% 21%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations