Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–14 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.5% 18.0–21.2% 17.5–21.7% 17.2–22.1% 16.4–22.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.6% 17.1–20.3% 16.7–20.7% 16.3–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti 200 0 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 19–22 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.8%  
22 7% 98.8%  
23 13% 92%  
24 21% 80%  
25 24% 58% Median
26 21% 34%  
27 8% 14%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.1% 1.4%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.4%  
20 10% 96%  
21 19% 87%  
22 26% 68% Median
23 24% 41%  
24 11% 18%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 7% 98%  
19 17% 91% Last Result
20 24% 74% Median
21 24% 49%  
22 17% 25%  
23 6% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 6% 98%  
18 16% 92%  
19 25% 75%  
20 26% 50% Median
21 17% 25%  
22 6% 8%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 13% 98.9%  
7 38% 86% Median
8 33% 47%  
9 12% 14%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.4% 99.9%  
5 12% 99.4%  
6 38% 88% Median
7 35% 49%  
8 12% 14%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 65 100% 63–67 62–68 61–68 60–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 76% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 1.3% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 45 0.3% 43–48 42–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 44 0% 42–47 41–47 41–48 40–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 38–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 39 0% 37–41 36–42 35–42 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 31–36 31–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 32 0% 30–34 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.7% 99.8%  
61 3% 99.2%  
62 6% 96%  
63 13% 90%  
64 22% 77%  
65 20% 56% Median
66 17% 36%  
67 11% 18%  
68 5% 7%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.8% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 8% 97%  
50 13% 89%  
51 19% 76% Median, Majority
52 21% 57%  
53 17% 36%  
54 13% 19%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.2% 99.6%  
43 3% 98%  
44 10% 95%  
45 16% 85%  
46 16% 69% Median
47 25% 54%  
48 14% 29%  
49 10% 15%  
50 4% 5%  
51 0.9% 1.3% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 11% 94%  
44 15% 82%  
45 22% 67% Median
46 18% 46%  
47 17% 28%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.1% 1.5%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.2% 99.6%  
41 4% 98%  
42 11% 94%  
43 15% 83%  
44 22% 69%  
45 21% 47% Median
46 13% 25%  
47 8% 12%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.8% 1.1%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 5% 97%  
38 15% 92%  
39 16% 77%  
40 19% 61% Median
41 21% 41%  
42 11% 20%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 6% 97%  
37 13% 90%  
38 23% 78% Median
39 18% 54%  
40 17% 36%  
41 12% 19%  
42 5% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.8%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 8% 96%  
32 18% 88%  
33 18% 70% Median
34 22% 51%  
35 17% 29%  
36 8% 12%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.9% 1.1%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.5% 99.8%  
29 3% 98%  
30 10% 95%  
31 16% 86%  
32 26% 69% Median
33 17% 43%  
34 17% 26%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.0% 99.8%  
28 4% 98.8%  
29 9% 95%  
30 17% 86%  
31 22% 68% Median
32 22% 46%  
33 14% 25%  
34 7% 11%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.7%  
25 5% 98%  
26 12% 93%  
27 20% 81% Median
28 23% 61%  
29 22% 38% Last Result
30 10% 16%  
31 5% 7%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.8%  
24 5% 98%  
25 11% 94%  
26 21% 83%  
27 24% 62% Median
28 21% 37%  
29 11% 17%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations