Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–18 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti 200 4.4% 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.1% 18.4–23.8%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 20.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.3–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.4–22.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.3–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.4–22.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.3–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.4–22.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.5% 7.2–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti 200 0 22 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Eesti Reformierakond 34 21 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 5% 99.1%  
21 17% 94%  
22 28% 78% Median
23 29% 49%  
24 15% 21%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.9% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 5% 98.9%  
20 25% 94%  
21 27% 69% Median
22 22% 43%  
23 18% 21%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 7% 99.2%  
20 19% 92%  
21 30% 73% Median
22 26% 43%  
23 14% 17%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.9%  
19 7% 98.7% Last Result
20 22% 92%  
21 30% 70% Median
22 24% 39%  
23 12% 15%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 10% 99.4%  
8 43% 89% Median
9 34% 46%  
10 11% 12% Last Result
11 1.0% 1.0%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 13% 99.7%  
6 47% 86% Median
7 36% 40%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 79 64 100% 62–66 61–66 61–66 60–68
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 15% 47–51 46–51 46–52 45–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 49 14% 47–51 46–51 46–52 45–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 43 0% 41–45 40–45 40–46 39–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 40–44 40–45 40–45 39–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 42 0% 41–44 40–45 40–45 39–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 36 0% 34–38 34–39 33–39 32–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 36 0% 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–33
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 30 0% 28–32 27–32 27–32 26–33
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 28 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.2% 99.8%  
61 5% 98.6%  
62 15% 93%  
63 24% 78% Median
64 21% 55%  
65 19% 34%  
66 12% 14%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 2% 99.7%  
46 6% 98%  
47 13% 92%  
48 24% 79% Median
49 24% 56%  
50 17% 32%  
51 11% 15% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.6% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.9% 99.8%  
46 5% 98.9%  
47 13% 94%  
48 25% 81% Median
49 25% 56%  
50 17% 31%  
51 10% 14% Majority
52 3% 3%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 8% 98%  
41 17% 90%  
42 22% 74% Median
43 23% 52%  
44 18% 29%  
45 8% 11%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.6%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 2% 99.5%  
40 11% 98%  
41 14% 87%  
42 27% 74% Median
43 19% 47%  
44 18% 28%  
45 7% 9% Last Result
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 1.2% 99.6%  
40 6% 98%  
41 21% 92%  
42 23% 72% Median
43 23% 48%  
44 17% 26%  
45 7% 9%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.3%  
34 11% 96%  
35 20% 85% Median
36 26% 65%  
37 23% 39%  
38 10% 16%  
39 5% 5%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.3%  
34 11% 96%  
35 20% 85% Median
36 27% 65%  
37 21% 39%  
38 13% 17%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.9% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.2%  
28 13% 95%  
29 25% 81% Median
30 26% 56%  
31 19% 30%  
32 8% 11%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 5% 99.1%  
28 15% 95%  
29 28% 79% Last Result, Median
30 24% 52%  
31 17% 27%  
32 7% 10%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.2%  
28 13% 95%  
29 26% 82% Median
30 25% 56%  
31 20% 31%  
32 9% 11%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 5% 99.0%  
26 17% 94%  
27 24% 77% Median
28 27% 53%  
29 17% 26%  
30 7% 9%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations