Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 18 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti 200 4.4% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.5–26.0%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 17.9% 16.3–19.8% 15.9–20.3% 15.5–20.7% 14.7–21.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.0% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2% 12.7–17.6% 12.0–18.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.8–10.5% 7.5–10.9% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti 200 0 24 22–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–26 21–26 20–27 19–28
Eesti Reformierakond 34 18 16–21 16–21 15–22 15–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–17 13–18 12–18 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.8%  
21 3% 99.0%  
22 9% 96%  
23 15% 87%  
24 22% 72% Median
25 21% 50%  
26 15% 29%  
27 8% 14%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
20 4% 98.8%  
21 10% 95%  
22 17% 85%  
23 23% 68% Median
24 20% 46%  
25 14% 26%  
26 7% 12%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.9% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 8% 97%  
17 16% 90%  
18 25% 74% Median
19 22% 49%  
20 16% 27%  
21 8% 11%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 11% 97%  
14 22% 86%  
15 27% 64% Median
16 21% 38%  
17 11% 17%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.1% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 19% 97%  
8 29% 78% Median
9 32% 49%  
10 12% 17% Last Result
11 4% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 2% 99.5%  
5 18% 98%  
6 39% 80% Median
7 29% 41%  
8 10% 12%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 57 99.9% 54–60 53–61 53–62 51–63
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 48 15% 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.7% 42–48 41–48 41–49 39–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 42 0% 39–45 38–45 38–46 37–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 38 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 33–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 34 0% 31–36 30–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 27–32 27–33 26–34 25–35
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 27 0% 25–29 24–30 23–31 22–32
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 25 0% 23–27 22–28 21–29 20–30
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–28

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 1.3% 99.5%  
53 3% 98%  
54 8% 95%  
55 13% 87%  
56 16% 74% Median
57 18% 57%  
58 15% 39%  
59 11% 24%  
60 6% 13%  
61 4% 7%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.0% 99.6%  
44 3% 98.6%  
45 6% 96%  
46 11% 89%  
47 16% 78% Median
48 18% 62%  
49 16% 44%  
50 13% 27%  
51 8% 15% Majority
52 4% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.8% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 4% 98%  
42 9% 94%  
43 13% 84%  
44 16% 71% Median
45 19% 55%  
46 15% 36%  
47 10% 21%  
48 6% 11%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 99.6%  
38 3% 98%  
39 8% 95%  
40 13% 87%  
41 17% 74% Median
42 19% 57%  
43 15% 37%  
44 11% 22%  
45 7% 11%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.3%  
35 5% 97%  
36 10% 92%  
37 15% 82%  
38 19% 67% Median
39 19% 48%  
40 13% 30%  
41 9% 17%  
42 5% 8%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.3% 99.6%  
30 4% 98%  
31 9% 94%  
32 15% 85%  
33 19% 70% Median
34 19% 52%  
35 15% 33%  
36 10% 17%  
37 5% 8%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.0%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.1%  
30 6% 97%  
31 10% 92%  
32 17% 82% Median
33 19% 65%  
34 18% 45%  
35 14% 27%  
36 8% 14%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.7%  
28 3% 98.8%  
29 8% 96% Last Result
30 13% 88%  
31 18% 74% Median
32 20% 56%  
33 16% 36%  
34 10% 19%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.8% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.9% 99.6%  
26 3% 98.8%  
27 7% 96%  
28 14% 89%  
29 18% 75% Median
30 21% 57%  
31 16% 36%  
32 11% 20%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.8% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.4%  
24 6% 97%  
25 13% 91%  
26 19% 78% Median
27 21% 60%  
28 17% 38%  
29 12% 21%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.8% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.6% 99.7%  
21 2% 99.1%  
22 7% 97%  
23 13% 90%  
24 20% 77% Median
25 22% 57%  
26 17% 35%  
27 11% 18%  
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.1%  
21 8% 96%  
22 17% 88%  
23 21% 71% Median
24 20% 50%  
25 16% 29%  
26 8% 14%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations