Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–21 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.3% 21.6–25.1% 21.2–25.6% 20.8–26.0% 20.0–26.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 25 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 21–26 20–27 19–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–23
Eesti 200 0 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.9%  
22 4% 98.9%  
23 10% 95%  
24 19% 85%  
25 26% 66% Median
26 22% 41%  
27 12% 19%  
28 5% 7%  
29 1.4% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
20 3% 99.4%  
21 8% 97%  
22 19% 88%  
23 24% 69% Median
24 22% 45%  
25 14% 23%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 11% 96%  
18 21% 86%  
19 27% 65% Median
20 23% 38%  
21 11% 16%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.9%  
16 6% 98.6%  
17 17% 93%  
18 26% 76% Median
19 23% 49%  
20 16% 26%  
21 7% 10%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 11% 99.2%  
7 33% 88%  
8 36% 54% Median
9 15% 18%  
10 3% 3% Last Result
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 17% 98%  
7 44% 81% Median
8 28% 38%  
9 9% 10%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 68 100% 65–70 65–70 64–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.8% 53–58 53–59 52–59 51–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 34% 47–52 46–53 46–53 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 15% 46–51 45–51 45–52 44–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 44 0% 42–46 41–47 41–48 40–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 38–42 37–43 37–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–37 29–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 30–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–29 23–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.9% 99.8%  
64 3% 98.9%  
65 9% 96%  
66 16% 87%  
67 20% 71% Median
68 20% 51%  
69 19% 32%  
70 8% 13%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.0% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 1.1% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 98.7%  
53 8% 96%  
54 12% 88%  
55 20% 76% Median
56 21% 56%  
57 18% 35%  
58 9% 16%  
59 6% 8%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.7%  
46 4% 98.6%  
47 8% 95%  
48 12% 87%  
49 20% 75% Median
50 20% 54%  
51 18% 34% Majority
52 10% 16%  
53 4% 6%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100%  
44 1.3% 99.6%  
45 3% 98%  
46 9% 95%  
47 15% 86%  
48 23% 71% Median
49 19% 48%  
50 14% 29%  
51 10% 15% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.1% 2% Last Result
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.6%  
41 6% 98%  
42 10% 92%  
43 16% 82%  
44 22% 66% Median
45 19% 44%  
46 15% 25%  
47 6% 10%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.8% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.6%  
39 5% 98%  
40 9% 93%  
41 17% 85%  
42 20% 68% Median
43 20% 48%  
44 15% 28%  
45 9% 13% Last Result
46 3% 4%  
47 1.1% 1.4%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 5% 98%  
38 11% 92%  
39 18% 81%  
40 25% 63% Median
41 18% 39%  
42 12% 21%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 5% 98%  
32 13% 92%  
33 16% 79%  
34 25% 63% Median
35 20% 38%  
36 11% 18%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.8%  
29 3% 98.7%  
30 7% 95%  
31 16% 89%  
32 28% 73% Median
33 19% 45%  
34 13% 25%  
35 8% 12%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.8% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 7% 97%  
31 13% 91%  
32 20% 78%  
33 26% 58% Median
34 16% 32%  
35 10% 15%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 5% 98%  
29 11% 93% Last Result
30 24% 82%  
31 20% 57% Median
32 18% 38%  
33 13% 20%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.5% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 7% 97%  
25 15% 91%  
26 20% 76%  
27 25% 56% Median
28 19% 31%  
29 8% 12%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.9% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations