Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 22–28 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.6% 21.0–24.4% 20.5–24.9% 20.1–25.3% 19.4–26.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 20.4% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti 200 0 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 18–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–17 13–17 12–18 12–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.3%  
26 7% 97%  
27 16% 91%  
28 23% 75%  
29 24% 52% Median
30 14% 28%  
31 9% 14%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.2% 1.4%  
34 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100% Last Result
20 1.2% 99.8%  
21 5% 98.7%  
22 14% 94%  
23 20% 80%  
24 27% 60% Median
25 19% 34%  
26 9% 15%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 9% 97%  
20 21% 89%  
21 22% 68% Median
22 24% 46%  
23 14% 22%  
24 6% 8%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 11% 97%  
14 25% 86%  
15 30% 61% Median
16 20% 31%  
17 8% 11%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 27% 95%  
7 43% 68% Median
8 20% 25%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 8% 97%  
5 42% 89% Median
6 36% 47%  
7 10% 11%  
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 67 100% 65–70 64–71 64–71 63–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 100% 55–60 55–61 54–61 53–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 84% 50–55 49–56 49–56 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 42–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 43 0% 41–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 41 0% 39–43 38–44 37–45 35–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 36 0% 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 28–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 21–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 1.1% 99.7%  
64 5% 98.6%  
65 8% 94%  
66 21% 86%  
67 19% 65%  
68 20% 47% Median
69 14% 27%  
70 7% 12%  
71 3% 5%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.7%  
54 3% 98.8%  
55 7% 96%  
56 14% 89%  
57 15% 75%  
58 22% 60% Median
59 20% 38%  
60 11% 18%  
61 5% 7%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.7%  
49 4% 98%  
50 11% 95%  
51 14% 84% Majority
52 17% 69%  
53 24% 52% Last Result, Median
54 15% 28%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 5% 97%  
42 13% 92%  
43 16% 79%  
44 20% 64% Median
45 21% 44%  
46 13% 23%  
47 6% 10%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.8% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 1.3% 99.6%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 17% 88%  
43 24% 71%  
44 19% 47% Median
45 12% 28%  
46 9% 15%  
47 4% 6%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 3% 98.6%  
38 6% 96%  
39 11% 90%  
40 20% 79%  
41 21% 59% Median
42 18% 38%  
43 12% 20%  
44 5% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.6% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.2%  
36 8% 96%  
37 13% 88%  
38 19% 76%  
39 24% 57% Median
40 16% 33%  
41 10% 17%  
42 5% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.8%  
32 3% 98.9%  
33 8% 96%  
34 17% 88%  
35 21% 72%  
36 21% 51% Median
37 16% 30%  
38 8% 13%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 0.8% 99.4%  
30 2% 98.7%  
31 5% 96%  
32 11% 92%  
33 19% 80%  
34 23% 62% Median
35 19% 38%  
36 11% 19%  
37 6% 8%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 6% 97%  
29 14% 91% Last Result
30 20% 77%  
31 22% 57% Median
32 19% 35%  
33 9% 16%  
34 4% 6%  
35 1.5% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.7%  
22 0.6% 99.5%  
23 1.3% 98.9%  
24 3% 98%  
25 9% 94%  
26 18% 86%  
27 26% 68% Median
28 20% 42%  
29 13% 22%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.8%  
19 4% 98.7%  
20 13% 95%  
21 25% 82%  
22 28% 57% Median
23 15% 29%  
24 10% 15%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.1% 1.2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations