Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–7 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.2% 29.4–33.1% 28.9–33.7% 28.4–34.1% 27.5–35.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 32–37 32–38 31–38 30–40
Eesti 200 0 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 7% 97%  
33 14% 89%  
34 19% 75% Last Result
35 21% 56% Median
36 16% 35%  
37 11% 19%  
38 6% 8%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.8%  
18 6% 98.5%  
19 14% 93%  
20 23% 79%  
21 25% 56% Median
22 19% 31%  
23 9% 12%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 4% 98.9%  
18 13% 95%  
19 26% 82% Last Result
20 28% 56% Median
21 16% 28%  
22 8% 12%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 3% 99.6%  
12 12% 97%  
13 28% 84%  
14 33% 57% Median
15 17% 24%  
16 6% 7%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 14% 99.0%  
7 39% 85% Median
8 35% 47%  
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 14% 88%  
5 51% 74% Median
6 21% 24%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 68 100% 66–71 65–72 65–73 63–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 57–61 56–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 98% 52–57 51–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 16% 46–51 45–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 3% 44–49 43–50 42–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–43 33–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 38 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 32–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 33 0% 31–36 31–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 26 0% 23–28 22–29 21–29 20–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 1.5% 99.3%  
65 4% 98%  
66 11% 94%  
67 18% 83%  
68 24% 65%  
69 18% 41% Median
70 11% 23%  
71 5% 13%  
72 4% 7%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.9% 1.3%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.7%  
55 2% 98.6%  
56 7% 97%  
57 7% 90%  
58 21% 83%  
59 19% 62%  
60 19% 43% Median
61 16% 24%  
62 5% 8%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.7% 0.9%  
65 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 99.5%  
51 4% 98% Majority
52 7% 94%  
53 16% 87% Last Result
54 23% 71%  
55 16% 48% Median
56 17% 32%  
57 6% 15%  
58 5% 8%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.6% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.6%  
45 4% 98%  
46 10% 94%  
47 16% 85%  
48 19% 68%  
49 19% 50% Median
50 15% 31%  
51 9% 16% Majority
52 4% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 0.8%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 2% 99.0%  
43 3% 97%  
44 7% 94%  
45 12% 87%  
46 18% 75%  
47 20% 57% Median
48 17% 37%  
49 11% 21%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.4%  
39 5% 97%  
40 10% 92%  
41 18% 82%  
42 20% 64% Median
43 17% 44%  
44 13% 27% Last Result
45 8% 13%  
46 4% 5%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 1.4% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 10% 92%  
38 15% 82%  
39 17% 67%  
40 18% 50% Median
41 17% 31%  
42 9% 14%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.5% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.2% 99.3%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 11% 89%  
37 16% 77%  
38 18% 62%  
39 22% 44% Median
40 11% 22%  
41 7% 11%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.7% 1.0%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 9% 96%  
32 17% 87%  
33 21% 70%  
34 23% 49% Median
35 13% 26%  
36 8% 13%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.8%  
24 4% 99.0%  
25 11% 95%  
26 18% 84%  
27 25% 66% Median
28 19% 42%  
29 13% 22% Last Result
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.2% 99.7%  
21 3% 98%  
22 4% 96%  
23 5% 92%  
24 8% 87%  
25 18% 79%  
26 26% 61% Median
27 20% 34%  
28 9% 15%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.3%  
19 8% 96%  
20 20% 89%  
21 31% 68% Median
22 21% 37%  
23 10% 16%  
24 4% 6%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations