Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–14 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 26 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–23
Eesti 200 0 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 8% 96%  
25 17% 88%  
26 23% 71% Median
27 24% 49%  
28 15% 25%  
29 7% 10%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 4% 99.0%  
24 12% 95%  
25 16% 83%  
26 25% 66% Median
27 23% 42%  
28 10% 18%  
29 6% 9%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 4% 98%  
18 16% 94%  
19 21% 78%  
20 34% 57% Median
21 11% 23%  
22 8% 12%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.9%  
14 7% 99.0%  
15 20% 92%  
16 28% 72% Median
17 21% 45%  
18 16% 24%  
19 6% 8%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 11% 99.5%  
6 39% 88% Median
7 34% 50%  
8 13% 16%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 4% 98.9%  
5 31% 95%  
6 45% 65% Median
7 17% 20%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 70–74 69–75 69–75 68–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–60 55–61 55–62 53–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 87% 50–55 49–55 49–56 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 71% 49–54 48–55 48–55 47–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 46 0.7% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 46 1.0% 43–49 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–37 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 25–29 24–29 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 1.3% 99.8%  
69 5% 98.5%  
70 15% 93%  
71 14% 78%  
72 14% 64% Median
73 23% 50%  
74 18% 27%  
75 7% 9%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.0%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.4%  
55 4% 98%  
56 8% 94%  
57 15% 86%  
58 20% 71% Median
59 26% 51%  
60 16% 25%  
61 6% 9%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.9% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.6%  
49 4% 98%  
50 8% 95%  
51 14% 87% Majority
52 19% 73% Median
53 24% 54% Last Result
54 17% 30%  
55 9% 14%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.6%  
48 3% 98%  
49 10% 95%  
50 13% 84%  
51 18% 71% Majority
52 20% 53% Median
53 17% 33%  
54 9% 16%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.1%  
43 9% 96%  
44 12% 87%  
45 19% 75% Last Result
46 18% 56% Median
47 20% 38%  
48 10% 18%  
49 6% 9%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.2%  
43 7% 97%  
44 12% 90%  
45 16% 78%  
46 17% 62% Median
47 20% 44%  
48 12% 24%  
49 8% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.7% 1.0% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.6%  
35 3% 98.8%  
36 6% 96%  
37 14% 90%  
38 20% 76% Median
39 20% 56%  
40 18% 35%  
41 10% 17%  
42 5% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 5% 98%  
31 14% 93%  
32 19% 79% Median
33 19% 60%  
34 24% 41%  
35 9% 17%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.3% Last Result
30 7% 97%  
31 15% 90%  
32 21% 74% Median
33 22% 54%  
34 17% 32%  
35 10% 16%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 1.4% 99.3%  
29 4% 98%  
30 10% 94%  
31 18% 84%  
32 22% 67% Median
33 21% 44%  
34 14% 23%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.7%  
28 1.4% 98.9%  
29 3% 97%  
30 11% 94%  
31 21% 83%  
32 26% 62% Median
33 17% 36%  
34 10% 18%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.8%  
23 3% 98%  
24 4% 95%  
25 20% 91%  
26 36% 71% Median
27 19% 35%  
28 6% 16%  
29 7% 10%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.6%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations