Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–16 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.2% 24.7–27.8% 24.2–28.3% 23.9–28.7% 23.2–29.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 19.2% 17.8–20.6% 17.4–21.0% 17.1–21.4% 16.4–22.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.1% 16.8–19.6% 16.4–20.0% 16.1–20.3% 15.5–21.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.1% 16.8–19.6% 16.4–20.0% 16.1–20.3% 15.5–21.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.2–9.1% 6.9–9.4% 6.7–9.7% 6.3–10.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.3–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.9–7.5% 4.5–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–31 27–32 26–32 25–33
Eesti 200 0 20 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.1%  
27 10% 95%  
28 19% 86%  
29 25% 67% Median
30 24% 42%  
31 10% 18%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 6% 98.9%  
19 16% 92%  
20 29% 77% Median
21 29% 47%  
22 11% 18%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.9% 1.2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 7% 98%  
18 23% 91%  
19 32% 68% Median
20 19% 36%  
21 12% 16%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.8%  
17 8% 98.6%  
18 22% 90%  
19 23% 68% Last Result, Median
20 25% 45%  
21 16% 20%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 11% 99.6%  
7 35% 89%  
8 39% 54% Median
9 13% 15%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 6% 96%  
5 48% 89% Median
6 35% 41%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 3% 5%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 68 100% 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 95% 51–56 50–56 50–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 12% 46–51 45–51 45–52 44–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 12% 46–51 45–51 45–52 44–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 41–46 40–46 40–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 40–44 39–45 38–45 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 38 0% 36–41 36–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–39 34–40 34–40 33–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 26–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 3% 98.7%  
65 8% 96%  
66 14% 88%  
67 23% 74% Median
68 23% 51%  
69 15% 29%  
70 8% 13%  
71 3% 6%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 1.0% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 1.0% 99.4%  
50 4% 98%  
51 7% 95% Majority
52 12% 87%  
53 20% 76% Median
54 23% 56%  
55 17% 32%  
56 11% 15%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.2% 1.4%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100%  
44 1.4% 99.7%  
45 3% 98%  
46 10% 95%  
47 18% 85%  
48 23% 67% Median
49 19% 44%  
50 13% 25%  
51 7% 12% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.0% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.2% 99.6%  
45 4% 98%  
46 9% 95%  
47 16% 86%  
48 22% 70% Median
49 20% 48%  
50 16% 28%  
51 7% 12% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.3% 2% Last Result
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 0.9% 99.3%  
40 3% 98%  
41 6% 95%  
42 14% 89%  
43 20% 75% Median
44 24% 55%  
45 17% 31%  
46 10% 14%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 1.3%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.3%  
38 2% 98.5%  
39 3% 96%  
40 12% 93%  
41 17% 81%  
42 27% 64% Median
43 19% 37%  
44 11% 17%  
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.5%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.9%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 9% 96%  
37 15% 87%  
38 25% 72% Median
39 20% 47%  
40 17% 27%  
41 7% 10%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.8% 1.0%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 6% 98%  
35 13% 91%  
36 22% 78%  
37 26% 56% Median
38 17% 31%  
39 8% 13%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 1.1% 98.9%  
31 3% 98%  
32 9% 95%  
33 14% 86%  
34 22% 72% Median
35 25% 50%  
36 15% 25%  
37 7% 10%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 0.9% 99.4%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 97%  
30 11% 93%  
31 21% 81%  
32 20% 60% Median
33 22% 40%  
34 11% 18%  
35 5% 7%  
36 1.0% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.9%  
24 5% 98%  
25 15% 93%  
26 24% 79%  
27 23% 55% Median
28 19% 32%  
29 8% 12%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.0%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.8%  
24 6% 98.8%  
25 12% 93%  
26 25% 81%  
27 21% 56% Median
28 21% 35%  
29 10% 15% Last Result
30 4% 5%  
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations