Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–18 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.6% 16.1–19.2% 15.7–19.7% 15.4–20.1% 14.7–20.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 17 15–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 4% 98%  
29 11% 94%  
30 15% 83%  
31 23% 67% Median
32 16% 45%  
33 16% 28%  
34 8% 13% Last Result
35 3% 5%  
36 1.3% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 4% 99.1% Last Result
20 11% 95%  
21 19% 84%  
22 23% 65% Median
23 22% 42%  
24 12% 19%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 6% 98%  
17 17% 92%  
18 26% 75% Median
19 23% 49%  
20 17% 26%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 8% 98%  
16 22% 90%  
17 26% 68% Median
18 24% 42%  
19 12% 18%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 8% 99.3%  
8 27% 91%  
9 35% 64% Median
10 21% 29% Last Result
11 6% 8%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 0% 59%  
4 20% 59% Median
5 34% 39%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 69–75 68–76 68–77 67–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.6% 53–59 53–60 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 91% 51–57 50–57 49–58 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 38% 47–53 46–53 46–54 45–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 40–46 39–47 38–47 37–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 37–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 38–43 37–44 36–44 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 27–33 26–34 26–35 24–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 1.4% 99.6%  
68 4% 98%  
69 10% 94%  
70 12% 85%  
71 17% 73% Median
72 15% 56%  
73 12% 40%  
74 12% 28%  
75 8% 16%  
76 5% 8%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.6% Majority
52 2% 98.5%  
53 6% 96%  
54 10% 90%  
55 14% 80%  
56 19% 66%  
57 19% 47% Median
58 12% 28%  
59 10% 16%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 5% 97%  
51 11% 91% Majority
52 16% 80%  
53 15% 64% Last Result, Median
54 17% 49%  
55 12% 32%  
56 9% 20%  
57 6% 10%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.0% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.5%  
46 3% 98%  
47 8% 94%  
48 13% 86%  
49 19% 73% Median
50 16% 55%  
51 15% 38% Majority
52 11% 24%  
53 8% 13%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.4% 99.6%  
39 3% 98%  
40 7% 96%  
41 10% 89%  
42 12% 79%  
43 15% 67%  
44 16% 52% Median
45 15% 36%  
46 11% 21%  
47 6% 10%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.1%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 3% 97%  
40 7% 94%  
41 12% 87%  
42 15% 75%  
43 16% 60%  
44 17% 44% Median
45 13% 27%  
46 7% 14%  
47 4% 6%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.5% 99.6%  
37 4% 98%  
38 9% 94%  
39 12% 85%  
40 19% 73% Median
41 20% 54%  
42 15% 33%  
43 9% 18%  
44 5% 9%  
45 2% 4% Last Result
46 0.8% 1.1%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 6% 97%  
38 11% 91%  
39 16% 80%  
40 19% 64% Median
41 17% 45%  
42 13% 27%  
43 8% 15%  
44 4% 7% Last Result
45 2% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 4% 97%  
31 8% 94%  
32 10% 86%  
33 15% 76%  
34 15% 61%  
35 15% 45% Median
36 14% 31%  
37 9% 16%  
38 5% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 5% 98%  
29 15% 92% Last Result
30 17% 78%  
31 19% 60% Median
32 20% 41%  
33 11% 22%  
34 6% 10%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.2% 1.5%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 8% 93%  
28 10% 85%  
29 12% 76%  
30 13% 63%  
31 17% 50% Median
32 14% 34%  
33 11% 19%  
34 5% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.1%  
25 8% 95%  
26 18% 87%  
27 21% 70% Median
28 20% 48%  
29 14% 28%  
30 9% 13%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.1% 1.4%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations