Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 19 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.5–26.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.3–23.0% 18.8–23.5% 18.4–24.0% 17.6–24.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.8–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.4–10.1% 5.9–10.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.5% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 25 23–28 22–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti 200 0 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.7%  
22 4% 98.6%  
23 10% 94%  
24 17% 85%  
25 21% 68% Median
26 20% 46%  
27 15% 26%  
28 7% 12%  
29 3% 4%  
30 1.1% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 4% 98%  
22 13% 94%  
23 17% 81%  
24 24% 64% Median
25 17% 40%  
26 14% 23%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.5% Last Result
20 6% 98%  
21 12% 92%  
22 21% 80%  
23 24% 59% Median
24 18% 36%  
25 11% 18%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.8%  
12 8% 98.5%  
13 16% 90%  
14 29% 75% Median
15 23% 45%  
16 15% 23%  
17 6% 8%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 13% 98%  
7 32% 85%  
8 33% 54% Median
9 16% 21%  
10 4% 5% Last Result
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0.7% 99.5%  
5 13% 98.7%  
6 36% 86%  
7 34% 50% Median
8 13% 16%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 63 100% 60–65 59–66 59–67 57–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 98% 52–58 51–58 51–59 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 15% 46–51 45–52 44–52 43–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.1% 41–47 40–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 33 0% 31–36 30–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 20–24 19–25 19–26 18–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.9%  
58 1.3% 99.3%  
59 4% 98%  
60 9% 94%  
61 13% 86%  
62 20% 73% Median
63 19% 53%  
64 15% 34%  
65 10% 19%  
66 6% 9%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 1.3% 99.3%  
51 4% 98% Majority
52 7% 94%  
53 13% 87%  
54 18% 74%  
55 18% 56% Median
56 17% 37%  
57 10% 21%  
58 7% 10%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.9% 1.2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.7%  
44 2% 98.8%  
45 6% 97%  
46 11% 91%  
47 13% 79%  
48 21% 66% Median
49 18% 45%  
50 12% 27%  
51 9% 15% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 2% Last Result
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.3% 99.5%  
40 4% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 14% 88%  
43 16% 74%  
44 20% 58% Median
45 17% 38%  
46 10% 21%  
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 4%  
49 1.1% 1.4%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.6%  
36 3% 98%  
37 8% 95%  
38 14% 87%  
39 17% 73% Median
40 21% 56%  
41 15% 35%  
42 10% 20%  
43 6% 10%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.8% 1.1%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 4% 97%  
37 11% 93%  
38 13% 83%  
39 19% 70%  
40 19% 50% Median
41 15% 32%  
42 9% 16%  
43 5% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 5% 97%  
35 9% 92%  
36 17% 83%  
37 20% 66% Median
38 19% 46%  
39 13% 27%  
40 8% 14%  
41 4% 6%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.0%  
30 6% 96%  
31 13% 90%  
32 18% 77%  
33 19% 59% Median
34 18% 40%  
35 12% 22%  
36 7% 10%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 1.4%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.8% 99.5%  
28 3% 98.7%  
29 6% 96%  
30 14% 90%  
31 17% 75%  
32 21% 58% Median
33 17% 37%  
34 10% 20%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.3% 99.6%  
27 4% 98%  
28 8% 94%  
29 14% 86% Last Result
30 21% 72%  
31 20% 51% Median
32 15% 31%  
33 10% 16%  
34 4% 6%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 1.1% 99.5%  
25 4% 98%  
26 8% 95%  
27 14% 87%  
28 20% 72%  
29 22% 52% Median
30 15% 30%  
31 9% 15%  
32 4% 6%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.7%  
19 6% 98.7%  
20 11% 93%  
21 18% 81%  
22 25% 63% Median
23 19% 39%  
24 12% 20%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations