Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–28 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.7% 29.9–33.6% 29.3–34.2% 28.9–34.7% 28.0–35.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 15.0–21.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 34–39 33–40 33–41 31–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29
Eesti 200 0 19 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 4% 98%  
34 10% 94% Last Result
35 14% 83%  
36 18% 69%  
37 19% 51% Median
38 14% 33%  
39 10% 19%  
40 5% 9%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.9% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 4% 98.7%  
22 9% 95%  
23 23% 86%  
24 20% 64% Median
25 18% 44%  
26 15% 26%  
27 7% 10%  
28 2% 4%  
29 1.1% 1.3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.6% 100%  
16 4% 99.4%  
17 10% 96%  
18 19% 86%  
19 25% 67% Median
20 20% 41%  
21 13% 21%  
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 8% 97%  
16 21% 89%  
17 28% 68% Median
18 21% 40%  
19 13% 19%  
20 4% 7%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 0% 64%  
2 0% 64%  
3 0% 64%  
4 13% 64%  
5 39% 51% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 6% 10%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 78 100% 75–82 74–82 73–83 72–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–65 58–66 57–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 58–64 57–65 56–66 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 93% 51–57 50–58 49–59 48–60
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 41 0% 39–44 38–45 38–46 36–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–45 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–42 32–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 24–31 23–31 23–32 21–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 21 0% 17–24 16–25 16–26 15–27
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 17–24 16–24 15–25 15–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 0.9% 99.5%  
73 2% 98.7%  
74 4% 96%  
75 7% 93%  
76 14% 86%  
77 17% 72%  
78 14% 55% Median
79 11% 41% Last Result
80 11% 31%  
81 8% 20%  
82 7% 12%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.6%  
57 3% 98%  
58 7% 95%  
59 14% 89%  
60 14% 75%  
61 16% 61% Median
62 13% 45%  
63 11% 32%  
64 9% 21%  
65 6% 11% Last Result
66 3% 5%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.6%  
56 3% 99.0%  
57 4% 96%  
58 8% 92%  
59 16% 84%  
60 14% 68%  
61 16% 54% Median
62 12% 38%  
63 9% 26%  
64 8% 17%  
65 6% 9%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 4% 97%  
51 9% 93% Majority
52 13% 84%  
53 15% 71%  
54 20% 56% Median
55 14% 36%  
56 9% 22%  
57 6% 13%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.5%  
38 3% 98%  
39 8% 95%  
40 15% 87%  
41 15% 72% Median
42 15% 57%  
43 19% 42%  
44 11% 24%  
45 6% 13%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 5% 98%  
39 10% 93%  
40 17% 82%  
41 16% 65% Median
42 15% 49%  
43 17% 35%  
44 9% 17%  
45 5% 8% Last Result
46 2% 4%  
47 0.9% 1.2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 4% 97%  
37 7% 93%  
38 10% 86%  
39 13% 76%  
40 16% 63%  
41 15% 47%  
42 13% 32% Median
43 10% 19%  
44 5% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 1.0% 1.4%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.3% 99.5%  
35 2% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 8% 90%  
38 12% 82%  
39 14% 71%  
40 16% 56%  
41 15% 41%  
42 13% 26% Median
43 8% 14%  
44 3% 5% Last Result
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 4% 98.7%  
34 8% 95%  
35 12% 87%  
36 16% 75%  
37 18% 59% Median
38 15% 41%  
39 12% 26%  
40 8% 14%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.8% 1.2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 4% 98%  
24 9% 94%  
25 6% 85%  
26 12% 79%  
27 13% 67%  
28 16% 54%  
29 16% 38% Last Result, Median
30 12% 22%  
31 7% 10%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.9% 1.0%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 6% 98%  
17 8% 92%  
18 7% 84%  
19 8% 77%  
20 9% 69%  
21 12% 60%  
22 17% 48% Median
23 14% 31%  
24 9% 17%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.1% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 6% 97%  
17 9% 91%  
18 8% 82%  
19 8% 74%  
20 10% 65%  
21 13% 55%  
22 18% 42% Median
23 14% 24%  
24 8% 11%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations