Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 March–4 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 27.0–31.7% 26.6–32.2% 25.7–33.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 19.3% 17.8–21.0% 17.3–21.5% 17.0–21.9% 16.3–22.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.8–19.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 21–26 20–27 19–28
Eesti 200 0 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.5% 99.5%  
30 5% 98%  
31 11% 93%  
32 17% 82%  
33 21% 65% Median
34 22% 45% Last Result
35 12% 23%  
36 6% 11%  
37 3% 4%  
38 1.2% 1.5%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
20 4% 99.4%  
21 9% 96%  
22 14% 87%  
23 28% 73% Median
24 20% 45%  
25 16% 26%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.7%  
18 4% 98%  
19 13% 95%  
20 27% 82%  
21 29% 56% Median
22 15% 27%  
23 7% 12%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.8%  
15 7% 98%  
16 17% 92%  
17 24% 74%  
18 25% 50% Median
19 16% 25%  
20 6% 9%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 4% 97%  
5 36% 93%  
6 38% 57% Median
7 17% 19%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 7% 12%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 71–76 70–77 69–78 68–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 100% 55–60 54–61 53–61 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.8% 54–59 53–60 52–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 55% 48–53 47–54 47–55 45–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 41 0% 39–44 38–45 38–46 36–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 36–41 35–42 35–43 33–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–38 29–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–32 25–33 23–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 24 0% 21–26 20–27 20–28 17–29
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–26 19–26 17–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.4%  
70 3% 97%  
71 5% 95%  
72 8% 89%  
73 14% 81%  
74 22% 67% Median
75 24% 46%  
76 13% 21%  
77 5% 9%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.1% 2% Last Result
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.7% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 6% 97%  
55 11% 91%  
56 18% 80% Median
57 20% 62%  
58 17% 42%  
59 12% 24%  
60 8% 13%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 99.3%  
53 4% 97% Last Result
54 9% 93%  
55 13% 85%  
56 19% 72% Median
57 20% 53%  
58 15% 33%  
59 9% 18%  
60 6% 8%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.7% 99.9%  
46 1.4% 99.2%  
47 4% 98%  
48 5% 94%  
49 14% 89%  
50 19% 74%  
51 23% 55% Median, Majority
52 14% 32%  
53 9% 18%  
54 5% 9%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.9% 1.5%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 5% 98%  
39 11% 93%  
40 15% 82%  
41 19% 67% Median
42 19% 48%  
43 15% 30%  
44 8% 14%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.7%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 7% 96%  
39 14% 88%  
40 16% 75%  
41 19% 58% Median
42 17% 39%  
43 14% 22%  
44 6% 9%  
45 2% 3% Last Result
46 0.9% 1.1%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.8% 99.5%  
35 2% 98.7%  
36 4% 97%  
37 11% 92%  
38 17% 82%  
39 18% 64% Median
40 17% 46%  
41 13% 29%  
42 9% 16%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.6%  
34 1.2% 99.2%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 95%  
37 13% 89%  
38 20% 76%  
39 20% 56% Median
40 16% 36%  
41 11% 20%  
42 6% 9%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 9% 96%  
32 14% 87%  
33 19% 73% Median
34 22% 54%  
35 14% 32%  
36 9% 19%  
37 6% 10%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 1.1% 99.1%  
25 2% 98%  
26 5% 96%  
27 13% 91%  
28 13% 78%  
29 21% 64% Last Result, Median
30 24% 43%  
31 11% 18%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 0.5% 99.5%  
19 1.1% 99.0%  
20 3% 98%  
21 8% 95%  
22 16% 87%  
23 20% 71%  
24 19% 51% Median
25 16% 32%  
26 8% 16%  
27 5% 9%  
28 2% 4%  
29 1.0% 1.5%  
30 0.3% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 0.7% 99.4%  
19 2% 98.7%  
20 4% 97%  
21 10% 93%  
22 19% 83%  
23 23% 64%  
24 19% 42% Median
25 15% 22%  
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations