Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 6–11 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.1% 30.3–34.0% 29.7–34.6% 29.3–35.1% 28.4–36.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.8–19.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–39 33–39 32–40 31–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 6% 97%  
34 11% 92% Last Result
35 22% 80%  
36 21% 59% Median
37 17% 38%  
38 10% 21%  
39 7% 11%  
40 3% 4%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 4% 99.2% Last Result
20 10% 95%  
21 21% 85%  
22 26% 65% Median
23 20% 38%  
24 10% 18%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 9% 97%  
16 21% 88%  
17 29% 67% Median
18 21% 38%  
19 12% 17%  
20 4% 5%  
21 1.1% 1.4%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 3% 98%  
15 10% 95%  
16 38% 85% Median
17 30% 47%  
18 11% 17%  
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 12% 92%  
5 48% 79% Median
6 26% 31%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 17% 86%  
5 47% 69% Median
6 19% 22%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–78 71–79 71–80 70–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 60–65 59–66 58–67 57–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 56–61 55–62 54–63 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 83% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.4% 42–48 41–49 40–49 39–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–46 39–46 39–47 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 38–43 37–44 36–45 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 38–44 37–44 36–45 35–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 26 0% 22–28 21–29 21–29 18–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 19–23 17–24 16–25 15–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 1.4% 99.7%  
71 4% 98%  
72 12% 94%  
73 17% 83%  
74 17% 65% Median
75 17% 48%  
76 9% 31%  
77 9% 22%  
78 5% 13%  
79 5% 8% Last Result
80 1.5% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.9%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 5% 97%  
60 8% 93%  
61 15% 84%  
62 19% 70%  
63 21% 51% Median
64 15% 30%  
65 7% 15% Last Result
66 4% 8%  
67 3% 4%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
54 2% 99.1%  
55 5% 97%  
56 13% 91%  
57 18% 78%  
58 21% 60% Median
59 15% 39%  
60 9% 24%  
61 6% 14%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.5%  
49 4% 98%  
50 11% 93%  
51 15% 83% Majority
52 21% 68% Median
53 17% 47%  
54 10% 30%  
55 9% 19%  
56 5% 10%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.7%  
40 1.5% 98.8%  
41 3% 97%  
42 5% 94%  
43 9% 89%  
44 15% 81%  
45 18% 66%  
46 20% 48% Median
47 15% 29%  
48 8% 14%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.1%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 94%  
41 10% 88%  
42 15% 78%  
43 23% 63% Median
44 17% 40%  
45 12% 22%  
46 6% 11%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.8%  
35 1.3% 99.2%  
36 3% 98%  
37 5% 95%  
38 8% 90%  
39 13% 82%  
40 19% 69%  
41 19% 50% Median
42 15% 31%  
43 8% 16%  
44 5% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.5%  
36 1.4% 98.8%  
37 3% 97%  
38 5% 94%  
39 13% 89%  
40 18% 76%  
41 21% 58% Median
42 17% 37%  
43 10% 20%  
44 6% 10% Last Result
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 1.3%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.3% 99.7%  
35 3% 98%  
36 8% 95%  
37 17% 87%  
38 20% 70% Median
39 18% 50%  
40 16% 32%  
41 7% 16%  
42 6% 8%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.9% 1.2%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.6%  
22 1.4% 98.8%  
23 3% 97%  
24 5% 95%  
25 10% 90%  
26 16% 80%  
27 24% 63% Median
28 21% 40%  
29 10% 19% Last Result
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0.5% 99.8%  
19 0.7% 99.3%  
20 0.8% 98.6%  
21 3% 98%  
22 7% 95%  
23 6% 88%  
24 5% 82%  
25 11% 77%  
26 25% 66% Median
27 23% 40%  
28 10% 17%  
29 5% 7%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.4%  
17 2% 96%  
18 2% 94%  
19 4% 92%  
20 11% 88%  
21 28% 77% Median
22 26% 49%  
23 14% 23%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations