Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 12–18 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.5% 17.0–20.1% 16.6–20.6% 16.2–21.0% 15.5–21.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 22–27 22–28 21–28 20–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
Eesti 200 0 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 5% 98%  
33 12% 93%  
34 16% 81% Last Result
35 18% 65% Median
36 18% 47%  
37 12% 28%  
38 8% 16%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.5% 100%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 7% 97%  
23 13% 90%  
24 20% 77%  
25 25% 57% Median
26 16% 32%  
27 9% 16%  
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.9%  
17 5% 98.6%  
18 13% 93%  
19 23% 81%  
20 24% 58% Median
21 18% 34%  
22 10% 16%  
23 4% 6%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 13% 97%  
12 28% 83%  
13 30% 55% Median
14 17% 25%  
15 7% 9%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 4% 89%  
5 48% 85% Median
6 30% 37%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 0% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 0% 68%  
4 15% 68%  
5 42% 54% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 77–84 76–85 76–86 75–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 61–66 60–67 59–68 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 57–64 56–65 56–65 54–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 98% 52–58 51–59 51–60 50–63
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 14% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.7% 42–48 41–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0.1% 40–47 39–47 38–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–45 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–42 35–43 34–43 32–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–34 23–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 24–31 24–32 22–33 20–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 22–27 21–28 19–29 18–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.7%  
76 5% 98%  
77 10% 93%  
78 20% 83%  
79 12% 64% Last Result
80 13% 52% Median
81 9% 39%  
82 9% 30%  
83 9% 21%  
84 6% 12%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.1% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.9% 1.3%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 5% 97%  
61 9% 92%  
62 15% 82%  
63 18% 67%  
64 18% 49%  
65 12% 32% Last Result, Median
66 10% 20%  
67 5% 9%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 4% 98%  
57 8% 94%  
58 14% 86%  
59 16% 72%  
60 12% 56% Median
61 15% 44%  
62 11% 29%  
63 7% 18%  
64 5% 11%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.3% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.1%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.7%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 5% 95%  
53 16% 90%  
54 16% 73%  
55 12% 57% Median
56 15% 46%  
57 11% 31%  
58 10% 20%  
59 4% 9%  
60 3% 5% Last Result
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 3% 99.1%  
44 5% 96%  
45 6% 92%  
46 12% 86%  
47 14% 74%  
48 16% 60%  
49 15% 43%  
50 14% 28% Median
51 7% 14% Majority
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.8% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 5% 98%  
42 10% 93%  
43 14% 82%  
44 17% 68%  
45 18% 51% Last Result, Median
46 13% 33%  
47 9% 21%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.6%  
38 1.4% 98.9%  
39 4% 97%  
40 6% 94%  
41 8% 88%  
42 11% 81%  
43 15% 70%  
44 16% 55%  
45 16% 39% Median
46 12% 23%  
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.6%  
35 1.5% 98.8%  
36 3% 97%  
37 5% 94%  
38 10% 89%  
39 16% 79%  
40 18% 63% Median
41 15% 45%  
42 14% 30%  
43 8% 16%  
44 4% 8% Last Result
45 2% 4%  
46 0.8% 1.1%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.5%  
34 3% 98.5%  
35 5% 95%  
36 9% 91%  
37 11% 82%  
38 16% 71%  
39 16% 55%  
40 15% 40% Median
41 11% 24%  
42 7% 13%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 1.3% 99.3%  
25 2% 98%  
26 5% 96%  
27 8% 91%  
28 10% 83%  
29 15% 73% Last Result
30 23% 58% Median
31 17% 35%  
32 10% 18%  
33 4% 8%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 0.8% 99.2%  
22 1.3% 98%  
23 2% 97%  
24 6% 95%  
25 7% 89%  
26 10% 82%  
27 11% 72%  
28 11% 62%  
29 16% 50%  
30 14% 35% Median
31 12% 21%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.2%  
20 2% 97%  
21 3% 96%  
22 6% 92%  
23 11% 87%  
24 18% 76%  
25 20% 58% Median
26 18% 38%  
27 12% 20%  
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations