Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 18 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.0% 27.7–32.5% 27.0–33.2% 26.5–33.8% 25.4–35.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.0% 18.0–22.2% 17.5–22.8% 17.0–23.4% 16.1–24.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 18.0% 16.1–20.1% 15.6–20.7% 15.1–21.3% 14.3–22.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.0% 12.3–16.0% 11.8–16.5% 11.4–17.0% 10.7–18.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5% 0.9–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–24 18–25 18–25 17–27
Eesti 200 0 19 17–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 12–16 12–17 11–18 10–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 4–9 0–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 4–9 0–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 5% 97%  
31 10% 92%  
32 13% 82%  
33 16% 69%  
34 16% 52% Last Result, Median
35 14% 36%  
36 10% 22%  
37 6% 12%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 5% 98%  
19 11% 93% Last Result
20 16% 82%  
21 20% 67% Median
22 20% 47%  
23 12% 26%  
24 8% 14%  
25 4% 6%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 7% 97%  
17 13% 90%  
18 19% 78%  
19 21% 59% Median
20 17% 38%  
21 11% 21%  
22 6% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.3%  
12 11% 96%  
13 21% 85%  
14 19% 64% Median
15 22% 46%  
16 15% 23%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 0% 98.5%  
2 0% 98.5%  
3 0% 98.5%  
4 2% 98.5%  
5 18% 97%  
6 34% 79% Median
7 28% 45%  
8 12% 16%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 2% 98.6%  
5 17% 97%  
6 35% 79% Median
7 28% 45%  
8 13% 17%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 69 100% 66–72 65–73 65–74 63–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–65 57–65 57–66 55–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 97% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 15% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 46 5% 43–50 42–50 41–51 40–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–45 33–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–45 34–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–40 30–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 25–31 24–31 23–32 22–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 24–30 23–31 22–31 20–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 18–23 18–24 17–25 14–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.1% 99.4%  
65 4% 98%  
66 6% 95%  
67 11% 89%  
68 14% 78%  
69 20% 65% Median
70 16% 45%  
71 12% 29%  
72 9% 17%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 1.4% 99.2%  
57 3% 98%  
58 6% 95%  
59 11% 89%  
60 13% 78%  
61 16% 65% Median
62 16% 49%  
63 14% 33%  
64 8% 19%  
65 6% 10% Last Result
66 3% 4%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 4% 97% Majority
52 8% 93%  
53 11% 85% Last Result
54 16% 74%  
55 15% 58% Median
56 15% 42%  
57 12% 27%  
58 7% 16%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.8% 1.4%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.6%  
43 2% 98.8%  
44 5% 97%  
45 7% 91%  
46 11% 84%  
47 15% 73%  
48 18% 57% Median
49 15% 40%  
50 10% 25%  
51 7% 15% Majority
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.7% 99.6%  
41 1.4% 98.9%  
42 3% 97%  
43 7% 94%  
44 9% 87%  
45 13% 78%  
46 17% 65% Median
47 15% 48%  
48 12% 33%  
49 10% 21%  
50 6% 11%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.7%  
38 4% 97%  
39 8% 93%  
40 11% 84%  
41 14% 73% Median
42 17% 59%  
43 16% 42%  
44 12% 26%  
45 7% 14%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 99.5%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 4% 97%  
37 8% 93%  
38 11% 85%  
39 16% 73%  
40 14% 58% Median
41 17% 44%  
42 11% 28%  
43 9% 17%  
44 4% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.5%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 4% 97%  
37 7% 93%  
38 13% 86%  
39 12% 73%  
40 21% 61% Median
41 11% 39%  
42 12% 28%  
43 9% 17%  
44 3% 7% Last Result
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 1.2%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 5% 96%  
33 10% 91%  
34 13% 81%  
35 18% 68% Median
36 15% 51%  
37 15% 35%  
38 9% 20%  
39 6% 11%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.7% 99.5%  
23 1.5% 98.8%  
24 4% 97%  
25 8% 93%  
26 15% 85%  
27 17% 71% Median
28 16% 53%  
29 17% 37% Last Result
30 10% 20%  
31 6% 10%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.1% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 0.5% 99.2%  
22 1.2% 98.7%  
23 3% 97%  
24 8% 94%  
25 12% 86%  
26 12% 74% Median
27 19% 62%  
28 20% 43%  
29 12% 23%  
30 6% 12%  
31 3% 5%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.4% 99.8%  
15 0.6% 99.5%  
16 1.0% 98.9%  
17 2% 98%  
18 11% 96%  
19 18% 85%  
20 12% 67% Median
21 18% 56%  
22 22% 37%  
23 9% 15%  
24 2% 6%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.9% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations