Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 14–20 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.9% 23.5–26.4% 23.2–26.8% 22.8–27.2% 22.2–27.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 20.9% 19.6–22.3% 19.3–22.7% 18.9–23.1% 18.3–23.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.9% 16.7–19.3% 16.4–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.5–20.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.7–18.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.5% 7.2–11.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 28 26–30 25–30 25–30 24–31
Eesti 200 0 23 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 5% 98.9%  
26 20% 94%  
27 22% 74%  
28 23% 53% Median
29 19% 29%  
30 8% 10%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 13% 96%  
22 27% 84%  
23 29% 57% Median
24 19% 28%  
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.9%  
17 9% 98.8%  
18 29% 89%  
19 36% 60% Last Result, Median
20 17% 25%  
21 6% 8%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 13% 97%  
16 30% 84%  
17 34% 53% Median
18 14% 20%  
19 5% 5%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 9% 99.7%  
8 33% 90%  
9 43% 57% Median
10 13% 14% Last Result
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 10% 99.8%  
6 42% 90% Median
7 41% 47%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 63 100% 61–65 61–66 60–66 59–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 94% 51–55 50–56 50–56 49–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 46 0.6% 45–48 44–49 44–49 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 44 0% 42–46 42–47 41–47 40–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 40–44 39–44 39–45 38–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 41–45 40–45 39–45 39–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 35 0% 34–37 33–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 36 0% 34–38 34–39 33–39 32–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 22–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.6%  
60 1.4% 98.6%  
61 10% 97%  
62 20% 87%  
63 33% 68%  
64 21% 34% Median
65 8% 14%  
66 4% 6%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 1.4% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 13% 94% Majority
52 22% 81%  
53 24% 59% Median
54 20% 35%  
55 10% 15%  
56 5% 6%  
57 0.9% 1.0%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 8% 98%  
45 19% 90%  
46 23% 72%  
47 24% 49% Median
48 15% 25%  
49 7% 10%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 4% 99.0%  
42 10% 95%  
43 17% 86%  
44 24% 68%  
45 25% 45% Median
46 11% 20%  
47 7% 8%  
48 1.1% 1.4%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 5% 98.9%  
40 21% 94%  
41 18% 73%  
42 10% 55% Median
43 31% 45%  
44 11% 15%  
45 2% 3%  
46 1.3% 1.5%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 6% 97%  
41 12% 92%  
42 23% 79%  
43 27% 57% Median
44 19% 30%  
45 9% 11%  
46 1.5% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.7%  
33 4% 98.8%  
34 22% 95%  
35 24% 73%  
36 31% 49% Median
37 10% 17%  
38 4% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.9% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.3%  
34 8% 96%  
35 23% 88%  
36 24% 65%  
37 16% 41% Median
38 16% 25%  
39 7% 9%  
40 1.2% 1.4%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 4% 99.2%  
32 9% 96%  
33 22% 86%  
34 25% 64% Median
35 24% 39%  
36 10% 16%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.2% 99.8%  
29 6% 98.6%  
30 14% 93%  
31 24% 79%  
32 28% 55% Median
33 15% 27%  
34 9% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.9%  
25 6% 98.8%  
26 17% 92%  
27 28% 76%  
28 26% 48% Median
29 16% 22% Last Result
30 5% 7%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 8% 98%  
24 18% 90%  
25 32% 72%  
26 23% 40% Median
27 13% 17%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations