Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 19–25 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–38.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–41 34–42 33–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.1% Last Result
35 5% 97%  
36 12% 91%  
37 19% 80%  
38 19% 61% Median
39 16% 42%  
40 12% 26%  
41 9% 14%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.2% Last Result
20 12% 96%  
21 19% 84%  
22 23% 66% Median
23 20% 42%  
24 15% 22%  
25 5% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 9% 96%  
16 20% 87%  
17 27% 67% Median
18 21% 40%  
19 14% 18%  
20 4% 5%  
21 1.0% 1.2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 9% 98%  
13 20% 90%  
14 28% 69% Median
15 23% 41%  
16 14% 19%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 8% 96%  
5 45% 88% Median
6 33% 43%  
7 8% 10%  
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 20% 80%  
5 42% 60% Median
6 16% 18%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 75–81 74–82 74–83 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 62–67 61–68 60–69 59–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 58–63 57–64 56–65 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 98.9% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 9% 45–50 44–51 43–52 41–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.1% 40–46 40–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0.1% 41–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–46 36–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–30 24–30 24–31 22–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 27 0% 23–29 22–30 21–30 20–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 20–25 19–25 18–26 16–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.5%  
74 6% 98%  
75 12% 92%  
76 15% 80%  
77 20% 65% Median
78 16% 45%  
79 9% 29% Last Result
80 7% 20%  
81 6% 12%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.7% 99.8%  
60 2% 99.1%  
61 5% 97%  
62 11% 92%  
63 19% 81%  
64 16% 62%  
65 16% 46% Last Result, Median
66 14% 30%  
67 10% 17%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 1.1%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.8% 99.8%  
56 3% 99.0%  
57 6% 96%  
58 13% 91%  
59 17% 78%  
60 15% 61% Median
61 15% 45%  
62 11% 31%  
63 10% 20%  
64 6% 10%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.7% 1.5%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.9% 99.8%  
51 2% 98.9% Majority
52 6% 96%  
53 10% 90%  
54 17% 81%  
55 21% 64% Median
56 13% 43%  
57 14% 30%  
58 8% 16%  
59 5% 8%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 1.0% 1.5%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 1.1% 99.3%  
43 2% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 12% 91%  
46 14% 79%  
47 17% 65%  
48 16% 49% Median
49 14% 33%  
50 10% 19%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 3% 3%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 2% 98%  
40 7% 95%  
41 10% 88%  
42 14% 79%  
43 15% 65%  
44 20% 50% Median
45 13% 30%  
46 9% 17%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.8% 99.5%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 6% 97%  
41 10% 91%  
42 15% 81%  
43 17% 66% Median
44 17% 49% Last Result
45 14% 32%  
46 10% 18%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 10% 87%  
41 17% 78%  
42 15% 60%  
43 17% 46% Median
44 13% 29%  
45 9% 16%  
46 5% 7% Last Result
47 2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 6% 97%  
37 9% 91%  
38 16% 82%  
39 19% 66% Median
40 20% 47%  
41 13% 27%  
42 8% 14%  
43 4% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.6%  
23 1.3% 99.0%  
24 3% 98%  
25 10% 95%  
26 13% 85%  
27 22% 71% Median
28 18% 49%  
29 19% 31% Last Result
30 7% 12%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.1% 1.5%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.2% 99.8%  
20 0.5% 99.6%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 4% 97%  
23 7% 93%  
24 7% 86%  
25 11% 79%  
26 12% 67%  
27 19% 55% Median
28 19% 37%  
29 11% 18%  
30 5% 7%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 1.1% 99.3%  
18 1.2% 98%  
19 3% 97%  
20 8% 94%  
21 14% 86%  
22 19% 72% Median
23 26% 53%  
24 16% 27%  
25 7% 10%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 1.1%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations