Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26 April–2 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 30.6% | 28.8–32.5% | 28.3–33.1% | 27.8–33.5% | 27.0–34.5% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 23.3% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.4–21.6% | 17.1–22.0% | 16.4–22.8% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 34 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 25 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 5% | 98% | |
| 32 | 8% | 93% | |
| 33 | 17% | 85% | |
| 34 | 22% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 35 | 18% | 45% | |
| 36 | 14% | 28% | |
| 37 | 8% | 14% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 11% | 95% | |
| 24 | 18% | 85% | |
| 25 | 24% | 67% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 43% | |
| 27 | 13% | 24% | |
| 28 | 7% | 10% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 7% | 98% | |
| 19 | 16% | 90% | |
| 20 | 22% | 74% | |
| 21 | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 27% | |
| 23 | 8% | 11% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 13% | 97% | |
| 12 | 29% | 84% | |
| 13 | 29% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 26% | |
| 15 | 7% | 8% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 41% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 32% | 45% | |
| 8 | 11% | 13% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 37% | |
| 4 | 21% | 37% | |
| 5 | 15% | 16% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 79 | 80 | 100% | 77–83 | 76–84 | 76–84 | 74–85 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 61 | 100% | 59–64 | 58–65 | 57–65 | 56–66 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 60 | 100% | 57–63 | 56–63 | 55–64 | 54–65 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 55 | 98% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 51–59 | 49–60 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 47 | 9% | 45–50 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–53 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 45 | 46 | 1.1% | 43–49 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 42 | 0% | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–47 | 37–48 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–44 | 37–45 | 36–46 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 32 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 27–37 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 29 | 0% | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–33 | 23–34 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 4% | 98% | |
| 77 | 9% | 94% | |
| 78 | 9% | 85% | |
| 79 | 13% | 76% | Last Result |
| 80 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 81 | 18% | 50% | |
| 82 | 14% | 32% | |
| 83 | 12% | 18% | |
| 84 | 5% | 6% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 6% | 97% | |
| 59 | 10% | 91% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 81% | |
| 61 | 19% | 65% | |
| 62 | 19% | 46% | |
| 63 | 13% | 28% | |
| 64 | 8% | 14% | |
| 65 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 5% | 97% | |
| 57 | 9% | 92% | |
| 58 | 13% | 83% | |
| 59 | 16% | 69% | Median |
| 60 | 17% | 53% | |
| 61 | 16% | 36% | |
| 62 | 11% | 21% | |
| 63 | 6% | 10% | |
| 64 | 3% | 4% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 5% | 98% | Majority |
| 52 | 8% | 93% | |
| 53 | 12% | 85% | |
| 54 | 13% | 73% | |
| 55 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 56 | 15% | 40% | |
| 57 | 12% | 25% | |
| 58 | 7% | 13% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 6% | 97% | |
| 45 | 10% | 91% | |
| 46 | 13% | 81% | Median |
| 47 | 19% | 68% | |
| 48 | 18% | 49% | |
| 49 | 15% | 32% | |
| 50 | 9% | 17% | |
| 51 | 5% | 9% | Majority |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 9% | 95% | |
| 44 | 13% | 86% | |
| 45 | 17% | 73% | Last Result |
| 46 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 38% | |
| 48 | 12% | 23% | |
| 49 | 7% | 11% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 39 | 5% | 96% | |
| 40 | 12% | 92% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 80% | |
| 42 | 16% | 65% | |
| 43 | 15% | 49% | |
| 44 | 16% | 34% | |
| 45 | 10% | 18% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 38 | 8% | 95% | |
| 39 | 11% | 87% | |
| 40 | 21% | 76% | Median |
| 41 | 20% | 55% | |
| 42 | 15% | 35% | |
| 43 | 10% | 20% | |
| 44 | 7% | 10% | Last Result |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 9% | 95% | |
| 34 | 13% | 85% | Median |
| 35 | 15% | 72% | |
| 36 | 14% | 57% | |
| 37 | 16% | 43% | |
| 38 | 13% | 27% | |
| 39 | 8% | 14% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 29 | 9% | 96% | Last Result |
| 30 | 15% | 87% | |
| 31 | 15% | 71% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 56% | |
| 33 | 18% | 35% | |
| 34 | 10% | 17% | |
| 35 | 4% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 5% | 97% | |
| 26 | 11% | 92% | |
| 27 | 13% | 82% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 68% | |
| 29 | 16% | 51% | |
| 30 | 13% | 35% | |
| 31 | 11% | 22% | |
| 32 | 6% | 11% | |
| 33 | 3% | 5% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 5% | 97% | |
| 25 | 13% | 92% | |
| 26 | 18% | 79% | |
| 27 | 22% | 61% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 38% | |
| 29 | 11% | 20% | |
| 30 | 6% | 9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 26 April–2 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.52%