Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–9 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.9% 34.0–37.9% 33.4–38.4% 33.0–38.9% 32.1–39.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 39–44 38–45 37–45 36–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 13 11–15 11–15 11–16 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 6% 97%  
39 13% 91%  
40 16% 78%  
41 19% 62% Median
42 18% 43%  
43 12% 25%  
44 6% 13%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.3%  
18 11% 96%  
19 21% 85% Last Result
20 25% 64% Median
21 18% 39%  
22 13% 21%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 10% 97%  
16 21% 88%  
17 27% 66% Median
18 22% 40%  
19 12% 18%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.1% 1.4%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 10% 98%  
12 24% 89%  
13 27% 64% Median
14 23% 37%  
15 11% 14%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 25% 96%  
7 40% 70% Median
8 24% 30%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 21% 52% Median
5 28% 31%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 78 100% 75–82 75–82 74–83 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–66 60–67 60–68 59–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 58–64 58–65 57–66 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 58 100% 55–61 55–62 54–63 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 54% 48–53 47–54 46–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 14% 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.1% 40–47 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 40 0% 36–42 35–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–30 24–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 27 0% 23–30 23–30 22–31 21–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 24 0% 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.9% 99.8%  
74 3% 98.9%  
75 7% 96%  
76 13% 90%  
77 16% 77%  
78 13% 61% Median
79 11% 48% Last Result
80 14% 37%  
81 12% 23%  
82 7% 11%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.6% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.5%  
60 4% 98%  
61 7% 94%  
62 16% 88%  
63 16% 72%  
64 20% 56%  
65 17% 36% Last Result, Median
66 11% 20%  
67 6% 9%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 1.3% 99.6%  
57 3% 98%  
58 8% 96%  
59 10% 88%  
60 15% 78%  
61 15% 63% Median
62 18% 48%  
63 12% 31%  
64 10% 19%  
65 5% 9%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.7%  
54 3% 98.7%  
55 6% 96%  
56 12% 90%  
57 16% 78%  
58 16% 62% Median
59 16% 46%  
60 12% 30% Last Result
61 9% 18%  
62 5% 8%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 1.0% 99.7%  
46 3% 98.8%  
47 5% 96%  
48 10% 91%  
49 14% 81%  
50 13% 66%  
51 15% 54% Majority
52 15% 39% Median
53 14% 24%  
54 6% 10%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.7%  
44 3% 98.8% Last Result
45 6% 96%  
46 12% 90%  
47 15% 78%  
48 21% 63% Median
49 18% 42%  
50 10% 24%  
51 6% 14% Majority
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.8% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.6%  
40 6% 95%  
41 9% 90%  
42 13% 80%  
43 16% 67%  
44 14% 51%  
45 14% 37% Median
46 12% 24% Last Result
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 4%  
49 1.0% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 4% 98.9%  
36 6% 95%  
37 6% 89%  
38 9% 83%  
39 14% 73%  
40 17% 59%  
41 21% 42% Median
42 11% 21%  
43 6% 10%  
44 2% 4%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 5% 98%  
35 13% 93%  
36 18% 80%  
37 19% 63% Median
38 15% 44%  
39 13% 29%  
40 9% 16%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.7%  
24 5% 98%  
25 12% 94%  
26 17% 81%  
27 22% 64% Median
28 17% 42%  
29 14% 25% Last Result
30 7% 11%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 0.8%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 6% 96%  
24 13% 90%  
25 10% 76%  
26 14% 67%  
27 14% 53%  
28 15% 39% Median
29 12% 24%  
30 8% 12%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.8%  
21 4% 98.8%  
22 10% 95%  
23 20% 85%  
24 24% 65% Median
25 18% 41%  
26 15% 22%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations