Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–16 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.3% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.3% 29.6–37.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–39 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–18
Eesti 200 0 13 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.9% Last Result
35 8% 97%  
36 16% 89%  
37 26% 73% Median
38 24% 47%  
39 13% 23%  
40 7% 10%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 4% 98.9% Last Result
20 13% 95%  
21 24% 81%  
22 26% 57% Median
23 19% 32%  
24 9% 12%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 13% 97%  
14 25% 84%  
15 28% 59% Median
16 21% 31%  
17 8% 10%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 12% 98%  
12 27% 86%  
13 31% 58% Median
14 20% 28%  
15 6% 8%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100%  
6 16% 98.6%  
7 43% 82% Median
8 30% 39%  
9 8% 9%  
10 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 7% 99.8%  
6 31% 93%  
7 37% 62% Median
8 20% 25%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–76 71–77 71–77 70–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 64–68 63–69 63–70 62–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 57–61 56–62 56–63 55–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 88% 50–54 50–55 49–55 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 73% 49–54 48–55 48–55 47–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.1% 42–47 42–48 41–48 40–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 42–47 42–47 41–47 40–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 41–46 41–46 40–47 39–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 27–32 26–32 25–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 1.3% 99.7%  
71 5% 98%  
72 10% 94%  
73 19% 83%  
74 27% 65% Median
75 18% 38%  
76 15% 20%  
77 4% 5%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 1.3% 99.5%  
63 5% 98%  
64 12% 93%  
65 18% 81% Last Result
66 25% 64% Median
67 18% 39%  
68 12% 21%  
69 6% 9%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.4% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.5%  
56 5% 98%  
57 10% 93%  
58 18% 83%  
59 21% 65% Median
60 19% 44%  
61 16% 25%  
62 6% 9%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.8% 0.9%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.5%  
49 3% 98%  
50 7% 95%  
51 20% 88% Majority
52 25% 69% Median
53 23% 44%  
54 14% 21%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.9% 99.8%  
48 4% 98.9%  
49 8% 95%  
50 13% 87%  
51 21% 73% Median, Majority
52 21% 52%  
53 17% 31%  
54 9% 14%  
55 4% 5%  
56 1.2% 1.5% Last Result
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 3% 99.1%  
42 8% 96%  
43 12% 89%  
44 21% 77% Last Result, Median
45 24% 56%  
46 17% 32%  
47 9% 15%  
48 4% 6%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.2% 99.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 11% 96%  
43 19% 85%  
44 24% 66% Median
45 17% 42%  
46 13% 25% Last Result
47 9% 12%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 1.0% 99.7%  
40 3% 98.7%  
41 9% 96%  
42 16% 86%  
43 21% 71%  
44 22% 50% Median
45 14% 28%  
46 9% 14%  
47 3% 5%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 4% 99.3%  
34 6% 96%  
35 20% 90%  
36 15% 70%  
37 22% 55% Median
38 17% 32%  
39 10% 15%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.9% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.7%  
26 5% 98%  
27 13% 93%  
28 18% 81%  
29 25% 63% Median
30 20% 38%  
31 11% 18%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 3% 99.2%  
27 10% 97%  
28 21% 86%  
29 27% 65% Last Result, Median
30 20% 38%  
31 12% 18%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.4%  
20 10% 96%  
21 20% 86%  
22 26% 66% Median
23 21% 40%  
24 13% 19%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations