Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 12–20 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.9% 31.4–34.5% 30.9–35.0% 30.6–35.4% 29.8–36.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.6–19.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.6–19.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.9% 14.8–17.2% 14.4–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.6–18.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–39 35–39 34–40 33–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Eesti 200 0 18 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 15–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.9%  
34 4% 99.2% Last Result
35 8% 95%  
36 23% 87%  
37 28% 64% Median
38 18% 36%  
39 13% 18%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.9% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 16% 96%  
17 32% 81% Median
18 29% 49%  
19 15% 20% Last Result
20 4% 5%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 15% 96%  
17 30% 82%  
18 32% 52% Median
19 15% 20%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 5% 99.6%  
15 18% 94%  
16 26% 76% Median
17 34% 50%  
18 14% 16%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.9%  
5 14% 99.6%  
6 51% 86% Median
7 30% 35%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 13% 99.6%  
6 52% 87% Median
7 30% 35%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 71 100% 69–73 69–73 68–74 67–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 59–63 58–63 58–64 57–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.4% 53–57 52–57 51–58 50–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 97% 51–55 51–56 50–57 49–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 49 28% 48–52 47–52 47–53 46–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 41–45 41–46 40–46 39–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–45 41–46 40–46 39–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 40 0% 38–42 38–43 37–43 36–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 34 0% 32–36 32–36 31–37 30–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 29 0% 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.8% 99.9%  
68 4% 99.0%  
69 10% 95%  
70 20% 86% Median
71 34% 66%  
72 18% 31%  
73 9% 13%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 2% 99.8%  
58 5% 98%  
59 11% 94%  
60 26% 83% Median
61 24% 57%  
62 20% 33%  
63 9% 13%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.5% 100%  
51 2% 99.4% Majority
52 5% 97%  
53 14% 92% Last Result
54 27% 77% Median
55 26% 50%  
56 14% 24%  
57 7% 11%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 3% 99.3%  
51 10% 97% Majority
52 14% 86%  
53 21% 73% Median
54 27% 52%  
55 16% 25%  
56 6% 9%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.6%  
47 6% 98%  
48 14% 91%  
49 30% 78% Median
50 19% 47%  
51 18% 28% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.4%  
41 8% 97%  
42 18% 89%  
43 27% 71% Median
44 22% 44%  
45 15% 22%  
46 5% 7% Last Result
47 2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.4%  
41 7% 96%  
42 18% 89%  
43 30% 71% Median
44 19% 42% Last Result
45 14% 22%  
46 6% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 9% 96%  
39 22% 87% Median
40 24% 66%  
41 23% 41%  
42 13% 18%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.2% 1.4%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.9%  
31 4% 98.9%  
32 12% 95%  
33 22% 83% Median
34 27% 62%  
35 24% 35%  
36 7% 11%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.2%  
27 11% 96%  
28 23% 85% Median
29 31% 61%  
30 15% 30%  
31 11% 15%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.5%  
22 13% 96%  
23 26% 83% Median
24 27% 57%  
25 20% 29%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 5% 99.3%  
21 15% 95%  
22 23% 79% Median
23 31% 57%  
24 18% 26%  
25 6% 7%  
26 1.2% 1.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations