Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–23 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.4% 33.5–37.4% 33.0–37.9% 32.5–38.4% 31.6–39.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.5% 17.0–20.1% 16.6–20.6% 16.2–21.0% 15.5–21.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.2% 15.7–18.8% 15.3–19.3% 15.0–19.7% 14.3–20.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.3% 11.1–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.5% 9.8–15.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 14–22
Eesti 200 0 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–15
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 10% 93%  
39 18% 83%  
40 21% 65% Median
41 18% 44%  
42 14% 27%  
43 8% 13%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 8% 98%  
18 18% 90%  
19 25% 71% Last Result, Median
20 23% 46%  
21 15% 23%  
22 6% 8%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.3%  
16 12% 96%  
17 24% 84%  
18 27% 60% Median
19 21% 34%  
20 10% 13%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 7% 99.2%  
11 23% 93%  
12 31% 70% Median
13 25% 39%  
14 10% 14%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 2% 99.5%  
5 23% 98%  
6 43% 75% Median
7 26% 32%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 8% 94%  
5 43% 86% Median
6 34% 43%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 75–80 75–81 74–82 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 63–68 63–69 62–70 61–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 57–62 57–63 56–64 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 58 100% 56–61 55–62 54–62 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 52 72% 49–54 48–55 48–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 2% 44–49 43–50 43–50 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.5% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 38–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 29 0% 27–32 26–32 25–33 23–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 22–27 21–27 20–28 18–29
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–26 18–26 17–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.6% 99.9%  
74 3% 99.2%  
75 8% 96%  
76 17% 88%  
77 22% 71% Median
78 20% 49%  
79 16% 28% Last Result
80 6% 13%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.7%  
62 2% 98.8%  
63 8% 96%  
64 18% 89%  
65 18% 71% Last Result, Median
66 18% 53%  
67 17% 35%  
68 10% 19%  
69 4% 9%  
70 3% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.4% 100%  
55 1.2% 99.6%  
56 3% 98%  
57 9% 96%  
58 21% 87%  
59 16% 67% Median
60 14% 51%  
61 20% 37%  
62 9% 17%  
63 4% 8%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.4%  
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.2%  
55 6% 97%  
56 10% 92%  
57 18% 81%  
58 22% 63% Median
59 16% 42%  
60 13% 26% Last Result
61 7% 12%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 1.5% 99.2%  
48 4% 98%  
49 9% 94%  
50 12% 85%  
51 22% 72% Median, Majority
52 18% 50%  
53 15% 32%  
54 11% 17%  
55 4% 6%  
56 2% 2% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 1.5% 99.4%  
43 4% 98%  
44 10% 94%  
45 17% 84%  
46 19% 66% Last Result, Median
47 19% 47%  
48 14% 28%  
49 8% 14%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.5% 2% Majority
52 0.6% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 5% 97%  
43 9% 93%  
44 15% 84% Last Result
45 20% 69% Median
46 19% 49%  
47 14% 30%  
48 10% 16%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.5%  
40 4% 98%  
41 10% 93%  
42 17% 83%  
43 18% 66% Median
44 21% 48%  
45 14% 27%  
46 7% 13%  
47 4% 6%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.4% 99.6%  
34 5% 98%  
35 9% 93%  
36 18% 83%  
37 21% 66% Median
38 19% 45%  
39 15% 26%  
40 6% 11%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.1% 1.5%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.1%  
25 2% 98%  
26 4% 95%  
27 10% 91%  
28 15% 81%  
29 22% 66% Median
30 19% 44%  
31 16% 26%  
32 7% 10%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.4%  
20 1.4% 98.5%  
21 3% 97%  
22 7% 94%  
23 12% 87%  
24 21% 75% Median
25 25% 54%  
26 16% 29%  
27 8% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.7% 99.7%  
18 2% 99.0%  
19 2% 97%  
20 3% 95%  
21 9% 92%  
22 16% 82%  
23 24% 66% Median
24 21% 43%  
25 14% 21%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations