Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–30 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.7% 32.8–36.7% 32.3–37.2% 31.8–37.7% 30.9–38.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
35 3% 99.0%  
36 8% 96%  
37 17% 89%  
38 18% 72%  
39 22% 54% Median
40 16% 32%  
41 10% 17%  
42 5% 7%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 3% 99.4%  
18 11% 97%  
19 22% 86% Last Result
20 26% 63% Median
21 19% 38%  
22 12% 18%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.0% 1.2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 4% 99.7%  
15 8% 96%  
16 29% 88%  
17 21% 59% Median
18 23% 38%  
19 12% 15%  
20 2% 3%  
21 1.0% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 4% 99.5%  
12 16% 96%  
13 30% 80%  
14 29% 50% Median
15 16% 21%  
16 5% 6%  
17 1.1% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 1.4% 99.7%  
5 19% 98%  
6 43% 79% Median
7 28% 36%  
8 7% 8%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 7% 97%  
5 35% 90%  
6 43% 55% Median
7 11% 12%  
8 1.3% 1.4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 74–78 73–79 73–80 71–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 62–67 61–67 61–68 59–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–61 56–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 99.7% 53–58 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 47% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.3% 43–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.1% 42–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 38–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 26–31 25–32 25–32 23–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.5%  
73 6% 98%  
74 14% 91%  
75 22% 77%  
76 24% 55% Median
77 16% 31%  
78 9% 15%  
79 3% 6% Last Result
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.3%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 1.2% 99.5%  
61 4% 98%  
62 10% 94%  
63 17% 84%  
64 24% 68%  
65 19% 44% Last Result, Median
66 14% 25%  
67 7% 10%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100% Last Result
54 0.8% 99.8%  
55 3% 99.0%  
56 7% 96%  
57 14% 89%  
58 20% 75%  
59 20% 54% Median
60 16% 34%  
61 10% 18%  
62 5% 8%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.9% 99.7% Majority
52 4% 98.8%  
53 8% 95%  
54 14% 87%  
55 21% 74%  
56 22% 53% Median
57 13% 31%  
58 11% 18%  
59 5% 7%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 0.6% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 6% 98%  
48 8% 92%  
49 13% 84%  
50 23% 71%  
51 19% 47% Median, Majority
52 13% 28%  
53 10% 14%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.0% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 6% 97%  
43 13% 90%  
44 21% 77% Last Result
45 19% 56% Median
46 16% 37%  
47 13% 22%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.8%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 5% 97%  
42 10% 92%  
43 17% 82%  
44 20% 65%  
45 20% 45% Median
46 14% 25% Last Result
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.9% 1.2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 1.1% 99.6%  
39 5% 98%  
40 11% 94%  
41 13% 83%  
42 18% 70%  
43 20% 53% Median
44 16% 33%  
45 11% 17%  
46 5% 6%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 6% 98%  
35 14% 92%  
36 18% 78%  
37 21% 61% Median
38 18% 40%  
39 12% 23%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.7%  
24 1.2% 99.3%  
25 3% 98%  
26 6% 95%  
27 13% 89%  
28 22% 76%  
29 20% 54% Median
30 18% 33%  
31 11% 16%  
32 4% 5%  
33 1.0% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.7%  
23 3% 99.0%  
24 10% 96%  
25 19% 86%  
26 23% 67% Median
27 21% 44%  
28 14% 24%  
29 6% 9% Last Result
30 3% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.8% 99.7%  
20 3% 98.9%  
21 9% 95%  
22 21% 86%  
23 23% 66% Median
24 22% 43%  
25 14% 21%  
26 5% 7%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations