Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–6 June 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.5% 31.6–35.5% 31.1–36.0% 30.6–36.5% 29.8–37.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–40 34–41 34–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 0–8
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.3% 99.5%  
34 4% 98% Last Result
35 13% 94%  
36 16% 81%  
37 20% 65% Median
38 16% 44%  
39 18% 29%  
40 5% 11%  
41 4% 5%  
42 1.1% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.8%  
19 5% 98.7% Last Result
20 16% 94%  
21 20% 78%  
22 28% 58% Median
23 14% 30%  
24 11% 16%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.9% 1.2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 9% 98%  
20 16% 88%  
21 22% 72% Median
22 26% 50%  
23 13% 24%  
24 8% 11%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.9% 100%  
8 8% 99.1%  
9 27% 92%  
10 36% 65% Median
11 21% 29%  
12 7% 8%  
13 1.2% 1.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 2% 99.4%  
5 25% 97%  
6 45% 73% Median
7 23% 28%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 16% 88%  
5 47% 71% Median
6 22% 24%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–83 78–85 77–85 76–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 63–68 62–69 61–70 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 59 100% 56–61 55–62 55–63 54–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 57–62 56–63 55–63 54–65
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 29% 47–52 46–53 45–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 9% 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–46 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 32 0% 29–35 28–35 28–36 26–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 23–28 22–29 21–30 20–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–29 22–29 21–30 20–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.6% 99.9%  
77 3% 99.3%  
78 8% 96%  
79 20% 88% Last Result
80 22% 68% Median
81 21% 46%  
82 11% 26%  
83 6% 15%  
84 3% 9%  
85 3% 6%  
86 1.5% 2%  
87 0.7% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.9% 99.8%  
61 2% 98.9%  
62 6% 97%  
63 12% 91%  
64 17% 79%  
65 24% 62% Last Result, Median
66 15% 38%  
67 11% 23%  
68 6% 12%  
69 4% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.4% 99.7%  
55 4% 98%  
56 7% 94%  
57 16% 88%  
58 19% 72% Median
59 19% 53%  
60 14% 34% Last Result
61 10% 20%  
62 5% 10%  
63 2% 4%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.8% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 7% 97%  
57 12% 90%  
58 16% 78%  
59 23% 62% Median
60 15% 39%  
61 12% 24%  
62 6% 12%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 5% 97%  
47 14% 92%  
48 15% 78%  
49 18% 63% Median
50 16% 45%  
51 15% 29% Majority
52 8% 14%  
53 4% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.6%  
43 1.4% 98.7%  
44 5% 97%  
45 7% 93%  
46 12% 85%  
47 15% 74%  
48 22% 59% Median
49 16% 37%  
50 12% 22%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.8% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.5%  
40 5% 97%  
41 13% 92%  
42 14% 79%  
43 20% 65% Median
44 19% 45%  
45 11% 26% Last Result
46 9% 15%  
47 3% 6%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.8% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 5% 97%  
41 12% 92%  
42 13% 80%  
43 22% 67% Median
44 18% 45%  
45 14% 27%  
46 8% 14% Last Result
47 3% 5%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 99.6%  
37 0.9% 98.5%  
38 6% 98%  
39 7% 92%  
40 12% 85%  
41 13% 73%  
42 23% 60% Median
43 14% 37%  
44 13% 22% Last Result
45 7% 10%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.7% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.6%  
27 1.3% 98.9%  
28 3% 98%  
29 7% 94%  
30 12% 88%  
31 15% 76%  
32 18% 61% Median
33 20% 43%  
34 13% 23%  
35 7% 11%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.0% 99.7%  
21 2% 98.7%  
22 4% 97%  
23 5% 93%  
24 10% 88%  
25 17% 79%  
26 18% 61% Median
27 19% 43%  
28 15% 24%  
29 6% 9%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 3% 97%  
23 4% 95%  
24 7% 91%  
25 16% 84%  
26 19% 68%  
27 21% 49% Median
28 13% 28%  
29 9% 14% Last Result
30 4% 5%  
31 0.8% 1.0%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations