Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 7–13 June 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.2% 33.3–37.2% 32.8–37.7% 32.3–38.2% 31.4–39.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 37–41 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–24 20–25 19–25 19–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100% Last Result
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 11% 97%  
38 27% 86%  
39 24% 59% Median
40 17% 35%  
41 9% 18%  
42 4% 9%  
43 3% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 2% 99.5% Last Result
20 4% 97%  
21 7% 93%  
22 19% 86%  
23 33% 67% Median
24 27% 35%  
25 6% 8%  
26 1.1% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 10% 97%  
16 19% 86%  
17 27% 67% Median
18 25% 40%  
19 11% 15%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.4% 100%  
7 13% 98.6%  
8 35% 85%  
9 34% 51% Median
10 13% 16%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 9% 99.4%  
7 32% 90%  
8 38% 59% Median
9 16% 20%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 5% 98%  
5 35% 93%  
6 40% 58% Median
7 16% 18%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 79 100% 77–81 76–82 76–82 75–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 70 100% 68–72 67–73 66–73 65–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 62 100% 60–64 59–65 58–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 99.9% 55–58 54–60 54–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 52 90% 50–55 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 5% 45–50 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 5% 45–49 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.3% 43–47 42–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 37–42 37–42 36–43 36–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 31 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 25–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–25 19–26 17–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 1.2% 99.8%  
76 4% 98.6%  
77 11% 95%  
78 19% 84%  
79 26% 65% Last Result, Median
80 23% 39%  
81 9% 16%  
82 5% 7%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.6%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
66 3% 99.3%  
67 6% 96%  
68 15% 90%  
69 22% 75%  
70 20% 53% Median
71 18% 33%  
72 9% 15%  
73 4% 6%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 6% 97%  
60 11% 91%  
61 20% 80%  
62 21% 59% Median
63 18% 39%  
64 12% 21%  
65 6% 9%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.7% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 0.4% 99.5%  
53 0.4% 99.1%  
54 5% 98.7%  
55 26% 94%  
56 40% 68% Median
57 16% 28%  
58 2% 12%  
59 2% 10%  
60 4% 7% Last Result
61 3% 3%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 8% 97%  
51 22% 90% Majority
52 23% 68%  
53 19% 45% Median
54 12% 26%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 7% Last Result
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.7%  
44 4% 98%  
45 9% 94%  
46 11% 85%  
47 14% 74%  
48 25% 60% Median
49 19% 35%  
50 12% 16%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.7%  
44 4% 98.8%  
45 17% 94%  
46 26% 77% Last Result
47 20% 51% Median
48 14% 31%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 9%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.1% 1.5%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 1.4% 99.2%  
42 5% 98%  
43 17% 93%  
44 24% 76% Last Result
45 22% 52% Median
46 15% 30%  
47 8% 16%  
48 4% 8%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.0% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.6%  
37 10% 96%  
38 13% 86%  
39 6% 73%  
40 19% 67% Median
41 29% 48%  
42 14% 19%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.7%  
26 1.2% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 8% 95%  
29 17% 88%  
30 20% 71%  
31 24% 51% Median
32 16% 27%  
33 8% 12%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 3% 98%  
26 5% 94%  
27 9% 89%  
28 23% 80%  
29 32% 58% Last Result, Median
30 20% 26%  
31 5% 7%  
32 1.0% 1.4%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 0.6% 99.4%  
19 2% 98.7%  
20 6% 97%  
21 13% 91%  
22 20% 78%  
23 25% 58% Median
24 21% 34%  
25 9% 13%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations