Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 9–14 June 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.9% 30.4–33.5% 30.0–33.9% 29.7–34.3% 28.9–35.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.5–20.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.5–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.7–17.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.5–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.7–17.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.2–11.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Eesti 200 0 16 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–18
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.9%  
33 4% 99.2%  
34 14% 95% Last Result
35 21% 81%  
36 28% 61% Median
37 19% 33%  
38 10% 13%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 11% 98%  
18 27% 87%  
19 34% 60% Last Result, Median
20 19% 26%  
21 6% 7%  
22 1.2% 1.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 4% 99.5%  
14 24% 96%  
15 32% 72% Median
16 27% 39%  
17 10% 12%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 4% 99.6%  
14 14% 95%  
15 30% 81%  
16 41% 51% Median
17 9% 10%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 10% 99.5%  
8 44% 89% Median
9 38% 45%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 11% 99.7%  
7 50% 88% Median
8 32% 38%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 70 100% 68–72 68–72 67–73 66–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 61–65 61–66 60–66 59–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.7% 53–56 52–57 52–58 51–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 52 79% 50–54 49–54 49–55 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 66% 49–53 49–54 48–54 47–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 42–46 42–47 41–47 41–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–45 41–46 40–46 39–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 40–44 40–45 40–45 39–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 34 0% 32–36 32–36 31–37 30–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 31 0% 29–33 29–33 28–34 28–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.8% 99.9%  
67 3% 99.2%  
68 12% 96%  
69 25% 84%  
70 26% 59% Median
71 23% 33%  
72 7% 10%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.6% 0.7%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.7% 99.9%  
60 3% 99.2%  
61 12% 96%  
62 18% 84%  
63 26% 66% Median
64 25% 40%  
65 9% 15% Last Result
66 4% 5%  
67 0.8% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 2% 99.7% Majority
52 7% 98%  
53 11% 91% Last Result
54 27% 80%  
55 22% 53% Median
56 21% 30%  
57 6% 10%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.8%  
49 6% 98.9%  
50 14% 93%  
51 27% 79% Median, Majority
52 26% 52%  
53 16% 26%  
54 7% 10%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.9%  
48 4% 99.3%  
49 12% 95%  
50 18% 84%  
51 26% 66% Median, Majority
52 23% 39%  
53 11% 16%  
54 4% 6%  
55 1.2% 1.5%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.4% 100%  
41 3% 99.6%  
42 9% 97%  
43 17% 88%  
44 26% 71% Median
45 26% 45%  
46 11% 19% Last Result
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.4%  
41 10% 97%  
42 16% 87%  
43 32% 71% Median
44 21% 39% Last Result
45 12% 19%  
46 5% 6%  
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 9% 98%  
41 14% 89%  
42 30% 75% Median
43 21% 45%  
44 16% 24%  
45 6% 8%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.3%  
32 10% 96%  
33 25% 86%  
34 23% 61% Median
35 23% 38%  
36 11% 15%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 3% 99.6%  
29 12% 97%  
30 22% 85% Median
31 30% 63%  
32 19% 33%  
33 10% 14%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 8% 98%  
25 21% 89%  
26 32% 69% Median
27 22% 37%  
28 11% 15%  
29 3% 4% Last Result
30 0.5% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 4% 99.3%  
21 18% 96%  
22 29% 78% Median
23 24% 49%  
24 18% 25%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.8% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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