Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 17 June 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.0% 28.7–33.5% 28.0–34.2% 27.4–34.8% 26.3–36.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 16.1–20.1% 15.6–20.7% 15.1–21.3% 14.3–22.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.2–19.1% 14.6–19.7% 14.2–20.2% 13.4–21.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.0% 10.4–13.9% 10.0–14.4% 9.6–14.9% 8.9–15.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 10.0% 8.6–11.7% 8.2–12.2% 7.8–12.7% 7.2–13.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.5–11.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 13–23
Eesti 200 0 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–16
Erakond Isamaa 12 10 8–11 8–12 7–13 7–14
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–10 5–10 5–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 4% 98%  
32 7% 94%  
33 12% 86%  
34 17% 74% Last Result
35 17% 58% Median
36 15% 41%  
37 12% 26%  
38 7% 13%  
39 3% 6%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 7% 97%  
17 10% 91%  
18 24% 81%  
19 18% 57% Last Result, Median
20 18% 39%  
21 14% 21%  
22 4% 8%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.4%  
15 7% 97%  
16 14% 90%  
17 22% 77%  
18 21% 54% Median
19 16% 33%  
20 10% 17%  
21 5% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 4% 99.4%  
10 12% 96%  
11 23% 84%  
12 25% 60% Median
13 21% 36%  
14 9% 15%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.0% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 4% 99.6%  
8 13% 96%  
9 28% 82%  
10 27% 54% Median
11 17% 27%  
12 7% 10% Last Result
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 17% 96%  
7 30% 79% Median
8 28% 49%  
9 14% 20%  
10 5% 6% Last Result
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 69–74 68–75 67–76 66–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–67 60–67 59–68 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 93% 51–57 50–58 49–58 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 83% 50–56 49–57 48–57 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 52 77% 49–55 48–56 47–57 46–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 5% 44–49 42–51 42–51 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.8% 42–48 41–49 40–50 38–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–46 39–46 38–47 36–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 35 0% 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–28 22–29 21–29 20–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.8%  
68 3% 97%  
69 6% 94%  
70 11% 88%  
71 19% 77%  
72 22% 57% Median
73 16% 35%  
74 11% 19%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.9% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 5% 96%  
61 8% 92%  
62 14% 84%  
63 14% 70%  
64 20% 56% Median
65 14% 35% Last Result
66 10% 21%  
67 7% 11%  
68 3% 4%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.6%  
50 4% 97%  
51 6% 93% Majority
52 13% 87%  
53 15% 74% Last Result
54 17% 59% Median
55 18% 42%  
56 11% 24%  
57 7% 13%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.7% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.0% 99.6%  
48 2% 98.6%  
49 4% 96%  
50 9% 92%  
51 13% 83% Majority
52 15% 70%  
53 18% 56% Median
54 14% 38%  
55 12% 23%  
56 6% 12%  
57 4% 6%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.1%  
48 3% 97%  
49 9% 94%  
50 9% 86%  
51 16% 77% Majority
52 15% 61% Median
53 17% 46%  
54 10% 28%  
55 10% 19%  
56 5% 9% Last Result
57 3% 4%  
58 0.9% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 1.4% 99.4%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 95%  
44 13% 91%  
45 10% 77%  
46 17% 68%  
47 19% 51% Median
48 9% 31%  
49 12% 22%  
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.5%  
40 2% 98.6%  
41 6% 96%  
42 9% 91%  
43 13% 82%  
44 15% 69%  
45 19% 54% Median
46 13% 36% Last Result
47 10% 23%  
48 6% 12%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.8% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.5% 99.5%  
38 2% 98%  
39 8% 96%  
40 6% 88%  
41 17% 82%  
42 15% 65% Median
43 15% 49%  
44 16% 35% Last Result
45 7% 19%  
46 8% 12%  
47 2% 4%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.0%  
33 4% 97%  
34 9% 93%  
35 13% 84%  
36 16% 71%  
37 16% 55% Median
38 16% 38%  
39 10% 22%  
40 7% 12%  
41 3% 5%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 1.3% 99.3%  
31 4% 98%  
32 6% 94%  
33 14% 88%  
34 14% 74%  
35 17% 59% Median
36 17% 42%  
37 11% 25%  
38 8% 14%  
39 3% 6%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.3%  
23 5% 97%  
24 10% 93%  
25 16% 83%  
26 18% 68% Median
27 19% 50%  
28 14% 31%  
29 9% 17% Last Result
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.6% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.2%  
22 5% 97%  
23 12% 92%  
24 16% 80%  
25 19% 64% Median
26 19% 46%  
27 12% 27%  
28 9% 15%  
29 4% 6%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations