Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–20 June 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.1% 32.2–36.1% 31.7–36.6% 31.2–37.1% 30.3–38.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.6% 21.0–24.4% 20.5–24.9% 20.1–25.3% 19.4–26.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 36–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
35 3% 99.0%  
36 7% 96%  
37 13% 88%  
38 21% 76%  
39 22% 55% Median
40 12% 33%  
41 12% 21%  
42 6% 9%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.9% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.4%  
22 9% 97%  
23 17% 88%  
24 23% 71% Median
25 23% 48%  
26 14% 25%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 5% 98.9%  
15 16% 94%  
16 28% 77% Median
17 26% 50%  
18 16% 24%  
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 14% 98%  
9 31% 84%  
10 35% 53% Median
11 14% 19%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 26% 96%  
7 41% 70% Median
8 23% 29%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 13% 88%  
5 47% 76% Median
6 24% 28%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 79 100% 78–82 77–84 76–85 75–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 70 100% 68–73 67–74 67–75 65–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 61–66 60–67 60–68 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 99.3% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 50 47% 48–53 47–54 46–54 45–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 11% 45–51 45–52 44–52 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 2% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 37–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 26–32 25–32 24–33 23–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 28 0% 25–31 24–31 23–32 22–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 18–24 17–24 16–25 15–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.5% 99.9%  
76 2% 99.3%  
77 5% 97%  
78 17% 92%  
79 25% 75% Last Result, Median
80 23% 50%  
81 11% 27%  
82 7% 16%  
83 4% 10%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3%  
86 1.2% 1.5%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
66 2% 99.5%  
67 5% 98%  
68 12% 93%  
69 18% 81%  
70 22% 63% Median
71 17% 41%  
72 11% 24%  
73 6% 13%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.4%  
60 5% 98%  
61 12% 93%  
62 21% 81%  
63 18% 61% Median
64 18% 42%  
65 12% 24%  
66 6% 13%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.3% Majority
52 5% 97%  
53 11% 92%  
54 16% 81%  
55 19% 65% Median
56 18% 46%  
57 13% 28%  
58 8% 15%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 0.7% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.6%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 5% 97%  
48 10% 92%  
49 11% 82%  
50 24% 71%  
51 16% 47% Median, Majority
52 15% 31%  
53 10% 17%  
54 4% 6%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 3% 99.0%  
45 7% 96%  
46 13% 89%  
47 17% 76% Median
48 21% 59%  
49 16% 38%  
50 10% 22%  
51 6% 11% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.7%  
42 4% 98.7%  
43 7% 95%  
44 14% 88%  
45 21% 75%  
46 19% 54% Last Result, Median
47 14% 35%  
48 11% 21%  
49 6% 10%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.1% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 4% 95%  
41 9% 92%  
42 12% 83%  
43 23% 70%  
44 16% 47% Last Result, Median
45 13% 31%  
46 12% 18%  
47 4% 6%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 7% 97%  
39 12% 90%  
40 19% 78% Median
41 23% 59%  
42 14% 36%  
43 13% 22%  
44 5% 9%  
45 3% 4% Last Result
46 1.0% 1.5%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 3% 97%  
26 5% 94%  
27 10% 89%  
28 15% 79%  
29 21% 65% Last Result, Median
30 20% 44%  
31 13% 24%  
32 7% 11%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.7%  
23 2% 98.8%  
24 3% 97%  
25 5% 94%  
26 7% 90%  
27 16% 82%  
28 20% 66% Median
29 19% 46%  
30 15% 27%  
31 8% 12%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.7% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.8%  
16 2% 98.8%  
17 3% 96%  
18 4% 93%  
19 6% 89%  
20 14% 83%  
21 22% 69% Median
22 23% 47%  
23 14% 24%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations