Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 June–4 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 32.5% | 30.6–34.4% | 30.1–35.0% | 29.7–35.5% | 28.8–36.4% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 21.1% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.1–23.3% | 18.7–23.7% | 17.9–24.6% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.6–20.4% | 15.0–21.2% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.6% | 8.2–13.2% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 36 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–26 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98% | |
| 34 | 11% | 93% | Last Result |
| 35 | 18% | 82% | |
| 36 | 26% | 65% | Median |
| 37 | 17% | 39% | |
| 38 | 13% | 22% | |
| 39 | 5% | 9% | |
| 40 | 3% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 20 | 9% | 97% | |
| 21 | 21% | 88% | |
| 22 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 23 | 24% | 42% | |
| 24 | 12% | 18% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 17 | 17% | 93% | |
| 18 | 28% | 76% | Median |
| 19 | 26% | 47% | |
| 20 | 14% | 21% | |
| 21 | 6% | 7% | |
| 22 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 22% | 94% | |
| 10 | 39% | 72% | Median |
| 11 | 25% | 33% | |
| 12 | 7% | 9% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 17% | 98% | |
| 7 | 39% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 31% | 41% | |
| 9 | 9% | 10% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 30% | 95% | |
| 7 | 42% | 64% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 22% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 79 | 77 | 100% | 75–79 | 74–79 | 74–80 | 73–81 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 66 | 100% | 63–68 | 63–68 | 62–69 | 61–70 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 58 | 100% | 56–60 | 55–61 | 55–62 | 54–63 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 55 | 98.6% | 52–57 | 52–58 | 51–58 | 50–59 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 56 | 50 | 45% | 48–53 | 47–53 | 47–54 | 46–55 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 48 | 8% | 46–50 | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 43 | 0% | 41–46 | 40–46 | 40–47 | 39–48 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 43 | 0% | 41–45 | 40–46 | 40–47 | 38–48 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 45 | 41 | 0% | 38–43 | 38–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 48 | 33 | 0% | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 25–33 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 5% | 98% | |
| 75 | 13% | 93% | |
| 76 | 24% | 80% | Median |
| 77 | 24% | 56% | |
| 78 | 19% | 32% | |
| 79 | 8% | 13% | Last Result |
| 80 | 3% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 7% | 96% | |
| 64 | 16% | 89% | |
| 65 | 20% | 74% | Last Result, Median |
| 66 | 23% | 54% | |
| 67 | 18% | 31% | |
| 68 | 9% | 13% | |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 54 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 10% | 95% | |
| 57 | 18% | 85% | |
| 58 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 59 | 23% | 47% | |
| 60 | 14% | 24% | |
| 61 | 6% | 10% | |
| 62 | 3% | 4% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98.6% | Majority |
| 52 | 8% | 95% | |
| 53 | 15% | 87% | |
| 54 | 22% | 72% | Median |
| 55 | 19% | 51% | |
| 56 | 18% | 32% | |
| 57 | 9% | 14% | |
| 58 | 4% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98% | |
| 48 | 11% | 94% | |
| 49 | 17% | 83% | |
| 50 | 22% | 67% | Median |
| 51 | 19% | 45% | Majority |
| 52 | 14% | 25% | |
| 53 | 7% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 6% | 97% | |
| 46 | 13% | 91% | |
| 47 | 18% | 79% | Median |
| 48 | 24% | 61% | |
| 49 | 18% | 36% | |
| 50 | 10% | 19% | |
| 51 | 5% | 8% | Majority |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 41 | 9% | 95% | |
| 42 | 16% | 86% | |
| 43 | 21% | 69% | Median |
| 44 | 21% | 49% | |
| 45 | 15% | 28% | |
| 46 | 8% | 13% | Last Result |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 6% | 98% | |
| 41 | 13% | 92% | |
| 42 | 18% | 79% | |
| 43 | 25% | 61% | Median |
| 44 | 16% | 36% | Last Result |
| 45 | 12% | 20% | |
| 46 | 5% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 7% | 97% | |
| 39 | 15% | 89% | |
| 40 | 23% | 74% | Median |
| 41 | 22% | 51% | |
| 42 | 14% | 29% | |
| 43 | 9% | 15% | |
| 44 | 4% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 8% | 96% | |
| 31 | 13% | 89% | |
| 32 | 23% | 75% | Median |
| 33 | 22% | 52% | |
| 34 | 16% | 30% | |
| 35 | 10% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 12% | 95% | |
| 28 | 21% | 83% | |
| 29 | 23% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 30 | 23% | 39% | |
| 31 | 10% | 16% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 9% | 96% | |
| 24 | 18% | 87% | |
| 25 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 26 | 21% | 43% | |
| 27 | 13% | 22% | |
| 28 | 7% | 9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 27 June–4 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.37%