Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 5–11 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.4% 30.5–34.3% 30.0–34.9% 29.6–35.4% 28.7–36.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.5% 17.0–20.1% 16.6–20.6% 16.2–21.0% 15.5–21.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.0–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.0–20.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 9–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.3% 99.7%  
33 5% 98%  
34 10% 94% Last Result
35 17% 83%  
36 22% 66% Median
37 21% 44%  
38 14% 24%  
39 6% 10%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.9% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 8% 98%  
18 18% 90%  
19 25% 72% Last Result, Median
20 27% 46%  
21 13% 19%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.2% 1.5%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 7% 98.5%  
16 18% 92%  
17 27% 74% Median
18 26% 47%  
19 14% 21%  
20 5% 7%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 5% 99.5%  
10 22% 94%  
11 34% 72% Median
12 26% 38%  
13 9% 12%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 4% 99.9%  
8 17% 96%  
9 32% 79% Median
10 34% 47%  
11 11% 13%  
12 2% 2% Last Result
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 13% 98.8%  
7 40% 86% Median
8 33% 46%  
9 11% 13%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 71–75 70–76 70–76 69–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 63–67 62–68 61–68 60–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.7% 53–58 53–59 52–59 51–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 95% 51–56 51–57 50–57 49–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 53 92% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 0.8% 44–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 0.4% 43–48 43–49 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 2% 99.7%  
70 5% 98%  
71 11% 93%  
72 18% 82% Median
73 27% 64%  
74 21% 37%  
75 10% 16%  
76 4% 6%  
77 1.2% 1.5%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 3% 99.3%  
62 6% 96%  
63 7% 91%  
64 20% 84% Median
65 31% 64% Last Result
66 18% 33%  
67 7% 15%  
68 6% 8%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 1.1% 99.7% Majority
52 4% 98.6%  
53 8% 95% Last Result
54 15% 87%  
55 20% 72% Median
56 24% 52%  
57 14% 28%  
58 9% 14%  
59 4% 5%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 1.0% 99.8%  
50 4% 98.8%  
51 7% 95% Majority
52 15% 88%  
53 17% 73% Median
54 25% 56%  
55 16% 31%  
56 9% 15%  
57 5% 6%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 5% 97%  
51 12% 92% Majority
52 18% 80% Median
53 21% 62%  
54 18% 41%  
55 12% 22%  
56 7% 11% Last Result
57 3% 4%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.3%  
43 5% 97%  
44 11% 92%  
45 18% 81% Median
46 18% 63%  
47 22% 45%  
48 13% 22%  
49 6% 9%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.8% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 1.3% 99.8%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 16% 89%  
45 22% 73% Median
46 21% 51% Last Result
47 14% 31%  
48 10% 16%  
49 5% 6%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.0%  
41 9% 96%  
42 13% 87%  
43 20% 75% Median
44 22% 55% Last Result
45 17% 33%  
46 8% 16%  
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.0%  
34 7% 96%  
35 14% 89%  
36 19% 75% Median
37 22% 57%  
38 21% 35%  
39 9% 14%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 9% 94%  
33 19% 85% Median
34 19% 65%  
35 21% 46%  
36 16% 25%  
37 6% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 6% 98%  
25 13% 92%  
26 22% 79% Median
27 26% 57%  
28 17% 32%  
29 10% 14% Last Result
30 4% 5%  
31 0.9% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.5% 99.8%  
22 5% 98%  
23 10% 94%  
24 22% 83% Median
25 30% 61%  
26 17% 31%  
27 8% 13%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations