Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 12–18 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.9% 32.0–35.9% 31.5–36.4% 31.0–36.9% 30.1–37.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.8% 15.4–18.4% 15.0–18.9% 14.6–19.3% 13.9–20.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Erakond Isamaa 12 10 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.7% Last Result
35 4% 98.6%  
36 10% 95%  
37 16% 85%  
38 21% 69% Median
39 21% 48%  
40 15% 27%  
41 8% 12%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.1% 1.4%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.2%  
17 12% 95%  
18 25% 83%  
19 27% 58% Median
20 19% 31%  
21 9% 12%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 6% 98%  
16 18% 92%  
17 30% 74% Median
18 24% 44%  
19 13% 20% Last Result
20 5% 7%  
21 1.2% 1.5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 4% 99.7%  
9 16% 96%  
10 34% 80% Median
11 31% 45%  
12 12% 15% Last Result
13 3% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 18% 97%  
8 39% 79% Median
9 29% 40%  
10 9% 11% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 8% 99.4%  
7 32% 91%  
8 40% 59% Median
9 15% 19%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 75 100% 73–77 72–77 71–78 70–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 64–68 63–69 63–70 62–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 57 100% 55–59 54–60 54–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 57 100% 55–59 54–60 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.8% 53–58 53–59 52–59 51–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 17% 46–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 2% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 2% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 36 0% 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.6% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 7% 97%  
73 15% 91%  
74 23% 75% Median
75 24% 53%  
76 18% 29%  
77 7% 11%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 1.3% 99.5%  
63 4% 98%  
64 10% 94%  
65 20% 84% Last Result, Median
66 23% 64%  
67 18% 41%  
68 15% 23%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.5% 99.9%  
53 1.5% 99.4%  
54 5% 98%  
55 10% 93%  
56 17% 83%  
57 22% 66% Median
58 20% 44%  
59 15% 25%  
60 6% 10% Last Result
61 3% 4%  
62 0.8% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.5% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 5% 97%  
55 11% 92%  
56 19% 81% Last Result, Median
57 20% 62%  
58 20% 42%  
59 14% 22%  
60 5% 8%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.9% 99.8% Majority
52 3% 98.9%  
53 6% 96% Last Result
54 14% 90%  
55 20% 76% Median
56 23% 56%  
57 15% 33%  
58 11% 17%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.8%  
45 3% 98.9%  
46 6% 96% Last Result
47 13% 90%  
48 22% 76% Median
49 17% 54%  
50 20% 37%  
51 10% 17% Majority
52 4% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.7%  
43 4% 98.6%  
44 9% 95%  
45 14% 86%  
46 20% 72% Median
47 22% 52%  
48 15% 30%  
49 10% 15%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.0% 99.8%  
43 3% 98.7%  
44 6% 96% Last Result
45 16% 90%  
46 22% 74% Median
47 19% 52%  
48 16% 33%  
49 11% 17%  
50 4% 6%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.2% 99.8%  
34 4% 98.6%  
35 9% 95%  
36 13% 86%  
37 23% 73% Median
38 22% 50%  
39 16% 28%  
40 6% 12%  
41 4% 5%  
42 1.2% 1.5%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.6%  
33 4% 98%  
34 11% 94%  
35 19% 83%  
36 20% 64% Median
37 21% 43%  
38 13% 23%  
39 6% 10%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.8%  
24 4% 98.8%  
25 11% 95%  
26 21% 84%  
27 21% 63% Median
28 23% 42%  
29 13% 19%  
30 4% 6%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 6% 98%  
24 15% 92%  
25 24% 77% Median
26 24% 53%  
27 16% 28%  
28 8% 12%  
29 3% 4% Last Result
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations