Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 14–20 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.0% 28.5–31.5% 28.1–32.0% 27.7–32.4% 27.0–33.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.2–11.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–36 32–36 31–37 30–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–18
Eesti 200 0 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–16
Erakond Isamaa 12 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 4% 99.2%  
32 12% 95%  
33 23% 84%  
34 26% 60% Last Result, Median
35 20% 34%  
36 10% 14%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.9%  
17 11% 98.6%  
18 19% 88%  
19 36% 69% Last Result, Median
20 21% 33%  
21 10% 12%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 18% 96%  
15 34% 78% Median
16 26% 44%  
17 13% 17%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 4% 99.6%  
12 25% 96%  
13 32% 71% Median
14 30% 39%  
15 8% 9%  
16 1.1% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 7% 99.6%  
10 27% 93%  
11 38% 65% Median
12 22% 27% Last Result
13 4% 5%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 9% 99.6%  
8 36% 90%  
9 39% 54% Median
10 14% 15% Last Result
11 1.4% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 68 100% 67–71 66–71 66–71 65–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 62–66 61–66 61–67 60–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 94% 51–55 50–55 50–56 49–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 53 96% 51–55 51–56 50–56 49–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 49 21% 47–51 47–52 46–52 45–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0% 43–47 43–48 42–48 41–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0% 43–47 42–47 42–48 41–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 41–44 40–45 39–46 39–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 34 0% 33–37 32–37 32–38 31–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 35 0% 33–37 33–37 32–38 31–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–27 21–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.9% 99.7%  
66 9% 98.8%  
67 26% 90%  
68 21% 64% Median
69 17% 43%  
70 15% 26%  
71 9% 10%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.2% 99.8%  
61 5% 98.6%  
62 12% 94%  
63 24% 82%  
64 23% 58% Median
65 22% 34% Last Result
66 9% 13%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 1.0% 99.8%  
50 5% 98.8%  
51 13% 94% Majority
52 20% 81%  
53 25% 61% Last Result, Median
54 20% 36%  
55 11% 16%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.9% 1.1%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 4% 99.3%  
51 7% 96% Majority
52 16% 88%  
53 25% 73%  
54 21% 48% Median
55 17% 26%  
56 7% 10% Last Result
57 2% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 3% 99.4%  
47 8% 96%  
48 20% 88%  
49 21% 68% Median
50 26% 47%  
51 11% 21% Majority
52 7% 9%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.5%  
43 8% 96%  
44 16% 88%  
45 31% 73% Median
46 18% 42%  
47 15% 23%  
48 7% 9%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 1.1% 99.7%  
42 7% 98.6%  
43 11% 92%  
44 25% 81%  
45 23% 57% Median
46 20% 34% Last Result
47 9% 13%  
48 4% 5%  
49 0.7% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 7% 97%  
41 14% 90%  
42 28% 76%  
43 20% 48% Median
44 18% 28% Last Result
45 7% 10%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 8% 98%  
33 20% 90%  
34 28% 71% Median
35 16% 42%  
36 15% 26%  
37 8% 11%  
38 3% 3%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 4% 99.2%  
33 11% 96%  
34 26% 85%  
35 26% 59% Median
36 20% 33%  
37 9% 14%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.7% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 6% 99.1%  
26 14% 93%  
27 24% 79%  
28 30% 55% Median
29 17% 25% Last Result
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 10% 98%  
23 22% 87%  
24 32% 66% Median
25 21% 34%  
26 9% 13%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations