Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 19–25 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond |
28.9% |
32.8% |
30.9–34.8% |
30.4–35.3% |
29.9–35.8% |
29.1–36.7% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
17.8% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.7% |
19.0–23.2% |
18.6–23.6% |
17.8–24.5% |
Eesti Keskerakond |
23.1% |
16.3% |
14.9–17.9% |
14.5–18.3% |
14.1–18.7% |
13.5–19.5% |
Eesti 200 |
4.4% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.7% |
8.9–12.1% |
8.7–12.5% |
8.1–13.1% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
9.8% |
9.2% |
8.1–10.5% |
7.8–10.8% |
7.6–11.2% |
7.1–11.8% |
Erakond Isamaa |
11.4% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.8–9.7% |
6.6–10.0% |
6.1–10.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised |
1.8% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
34 |
8% |
95% |
Last Result |
35 |
17% |
87% |
|
36 |
22% |
70% |
Median |
37 |
20% |
48% |
|
38 |
16% |
28% |
|
39 |
7% |
12% |
|
40 |
4% |
5% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
20 |
10% |
96% |
|
21 |
21% |
85% |
|
22 |
26% |
64% |
Median |
23 |
20% |
39% |
|
24 |
12% |
18% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
17% |
94% |
|
16 |
25% |
77% |
|
17 |
28% |
52% |
Median |
18 |
16% |
24% |
|
19 |
6% |
8% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
8 |
8% |
99.1% |
|
9 |
25% |
91% |
|
10 |
34% |
65% |
Median |
11 |
24% |
31% |
|
12 |
6% |
7% |
|
13 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
12% |
98.7% |
|
8 |
35% |
87% |
|
9 |
34% |
52% |
Median |
10 |
15% |
18% |
Last Result |
11 |
2% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
16% |
98.6% |
|
7 |
42% |
83% |
Median |
8 |
29% |
40% |
|
9 |
9% |
11% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
79 |
75 |
100% |
73–77 |
72–78 |
72–78 |
71–79 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
65 |
66 |
100% |
64–68 |
63–69 |
62–69 |
61–70 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
53 |
59 |
100% |
56–61 |
56–62 |
55–62 |
54–63 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
60 |
53 |
90% |
50–55 |
50–56 |
49–57 |
48–58 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
56 |
52 |
85% |
50–55 |
49–55 |
49–56 |
48–57 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
57 |
46 |
0.8% |
44–48 |
43–49 |
42–50 |
41–51 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
44 |
45 |
0.2% |
43–47 |
42–48 |
41–49 |
40–50 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa |
46 |
44 |
0% |
42–46 |
41–47 |
40–47 |
39–49 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
45 |
39 |
0% |
36–41 |
36–42 |
35–42 |
34–43 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
48 |
32 |
0% |
30–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
28–37 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
29 |
31 |
0% |
29–33 |
28–34 |
27–34 |
26–35 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
36 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–28 |
21–29 |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
71 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
72 |
4% |
98.7% |
|
73 |
11% |
94% |
|
74 |
16% |
84% |
|
75 |
27% |
67% |
Median |
76 |
22% |
41% |
|
77 |
11% |
19% |
|
78 |
6% |
7% |
|
79 |
1.4% |
2% |
Last Result |
80 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
63 |
7% |
97% |
|
64 |
11% |
91% |
|
65 |
22% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
66 |
22% |
58% |
|
67 |
17% |
36% |
|
68 |
11% |
19% |
|
69 |
6% |
8% |
|
70 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
54 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
56 |
8% |
95% |
|
57 |
14% |
87% |
|
58 |
23% |
73% |
Median |
59 |
21% |
50% |
|
60 |
14% |
29% |
|
61 |
9% |
15% |
|
62 |
4% |
6% |
|
63 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
50 |
7% |
97% |
|
51 |
11% |
90% |
Majority |
52 |
15% |
79% |
|
53 |
23% |
64% |
Median |
54 |
21% |
41% |
|
55 |
12% |
20% |
|
56 |
5% |
8% |
|
57 |
2% |
3% |
|
58 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
4% |
98% |
|
50 |
10% |
95% |
|
51 |
17% |
85% |
Majority |
52 |
23% |
68% |
Median |
53 |
16% |
45% |
|
54 |
16% |
29% |
|
55 |
8% |
13% |
|
56 |
3% |
5% |
Last Result |
57 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
43 |
6% |
97% |
|
44 |
11% |
91% |
|
45 |
21% |
81% |
|
46 |
20% |
60% |
Median |
47 |
20% |
40% |
|
48 |
11% |
20% |
|
49 |
7% |
10% |
|
50 |
2% |
3% |
|
51 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Majority |
52 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
42 |
6% |
97% |
|
43 |
11% |
92% |
|
44 |
19% |
81% |
Last Result |
45 |
23% |
61% |
Median |
46 |
18% |
39% |
|
47 |
11% |
21% |
|
48 |
7% |
10% |
|
49 |
2% |
3% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
41 |
6% |
96% |
|
42 |
14% |
90% |
|
43 |
22% |
76% |
Median |
44 |
19% |
54% |
|
45 |
16% |
35% |
|
46 |
12% |
19% |
Last Result |
47 |
5% |
7% |
|
48 |
2% |
2% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
36 |
8% |
96% |
|
37 |
14% |
89% |
|
38 |
22% |
74% |
|
39 |
19% |
53% |
Median |
40 |
18% |
33% |
|
41 |
8% |
15% |
|
42 |
5% |
6% |
|
43 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
30 |
7% |
96% |
|
31 |
17% |
89% |
|
32 |
24% |
73% |
|
33 |
22% |
48% |
Median |
34 |
13% |
26% |
|
35 |
8% |
13% |
|
36 |
3% |
5% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
7% |
97% |
|
29 |
17% |
90% |
Last Result |
30 |
19% |
74% |
|
31 |
26% |
55% |
Median |
32 |
14% |
29% |
|
33 |
10% |
16% |
|
34 |
5% |
6% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
10% |
96% |
|
24 |
20% |
85% |
|
25 |
24% |
65% |
|
26 |
22% |
41% |
Median |
27 |
12% |
20% |
|
28 |
5% |
7% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%