Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 19–25 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.8% 30.9–34.8% 30.4–35.3% 29.9–35.8% 29.1–36.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 4% 98.8%  
34 8% 95% Last Result
35 17% 87%  
36 22% 70% Median
37 20% 48%  
38 16% 28%  
39 7% 12%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.9% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 4% 99.3% Last Result
20 10% 96%  
21 21% 85%  
22 26% 64% Median
23 20% 39%  
24 12% 18%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 5% 99.1%  
15 17% 94%  
16 25% 77%  
17 28% 52% Median
18 16% 24%  
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.9% 100%  
8 8% 99.1%  
9 25% 91%  
10 34% 65% Median
11 24% 31%  
12 6% 7%  
13 1.0% 1.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 12% 98.7%  
8 35% 87%  
9 34% 52% Median
10 15% 18% Last Result
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100%  
6 16% 98.6%  
7 42% 83% Median
8 29% 40%  
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 73–77 72–78 72–78 71–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 64–68 63–69 62–69 61–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–61 56–62 55–62 54–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 90% 50–55 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 85% 50–55 49–55 49–56 48–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 0.8% 44–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.2% 43–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 1.0% 99.7%  
72 4% 98.7%  
73 11% 94%  
74 16% 84%  
75 27% 67% Median
76 22% 41%  
77 11% 19%  
78 6% 7%  
79 1.4% 2% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.5% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.4%  
63 7% 97%  
64 11% 91%  
65 22% 80% Last Result, Median
66 22% 58%  
67 17% 36%  
68 11% 19%  
69 6% 8%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
54 0.9% 99.7%  
55 4% 98.8%  
56 8% 95%  
57 14% 87%  
58 23% 73% Median
59 21% 50%  
60 14% 29%  
61 9% 15%  
62 4% 6%  
63 1.1% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.9%  
49 3% 99.3%  
50 7% 97%  
51 11% 90% Majority
52 15% 79%  
53 23% 64% Median
54 21% 41%  
55 12% 20%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.3% 99.6%  
49 4% 98%  
50 10% 95%  
51 17% 85% Majority
52 23% 68% Median
53 16% 45%  
54 16% 29%  
55 8% 13%  
56 3% 5% Last Result
57 1.0% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 6% 97%  
44 11% 91%  
45 21% 81%  
46 20% 60% Median
47 20% 40%  
48 11% 20%  
49 7% 10%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 0.8% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 6% 97%  
43 11% 92%  
44 19% 81% Last Result
45 23% 61% Median
46 18% 39%  
47 11% 21%  
48 7% 10%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.0%  
41 6% 96%  
42 14% 90%  
43 22% 76% Median
44 19% 54%  
45 16% 35%  
46 12% 19% Last Result
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 8% 96%  
37 14% 89%  
38 22% 74%  
39 19% 53% Median
40 18% 33%  
41 8% 15%  
42 5% 6%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.2%  
30 7% 96%  
31 17% 89%  
32 24% 73%  
33 22% 48% Median
34 13% 26%  
35 8% 13%  
36 3% 5%  
37 1.1% 1.3%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 7% 97%  
29 17% 90% Last Result
30 19% 74%  
31 26% 55% Median
32 14% 29%  
33 10% 16%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.9% 1.2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 4% 99.1%  
23 10% 96%  
24 20% 85%  
25 24% 65%  
26 22% 41% Median
27 12% 20%  
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations