Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25 July–1 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.5% 33.6–37.5% 33.1–38.0% 32.6–38.5% 31.7–39.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.8–19.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 37–42 37–42 36–43 35–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 15–19 14–19 13–20
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100% Last Result
35 1.1% 99.7%  
36 3% 98.6%  
37 8% 95%  
38 16% 87%  
39 19% 71%  
40 20% 52% Median
41 15% 32%  
42 12% 17%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.9% Last Result
20 4% 98%  
21 17% 94%  
22 21% 77%  
23 26% 56% Median
24 18% 30%  
25 8% 12%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 4% 99.3%  
15 14% 95%  
16 27% 81%  
17 28% 54% Median
18 17% 26%  
19 7% 9%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 15% 97%  
8 41% 83% Median
9 29% 42%  
10 11% 12%  
11 1.2% 1.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 8% 99.4%  
7 33% 91%  
8 37% 58% Median
9 17% 21%  
10 3% 3% Last Result
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 0% 99.1%  
4 3% 99.1%  
5 24% 96%  
6 49% 72% Median
7 21% 23%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 79 100% 77–81 77–82 76–82 75–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 71 100% 68–73 68–73 67–74 66–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 62 100% 60–64 59–65 59–66 58–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 99.9% 54–59 53–59 53–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 56 99.7% 53–58 53–59 52–59 51–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 8% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 48 8% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 4% 45–50 44–50 44–51 42–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 37–42 37–42 36–43 35–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 24 0% 23–26 22–27 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.7% 99.8%  
76 3% 99.1%  
77 11% 96%  
78 23% 85%  
79 25% 61% Last Result
80 22% 37% Median
81 9% 15%  
82 4% 5%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100% Last Result
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 3% 99.3%  
68 8% 97%  
69 11% 89%  
70 23% 78%  
71 28% 56% Median
72 14% 28%  
73 9% 14%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.0% 1.3%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 1.0% 99.5%  
59 4% 98.5%  
60 10% 95%  
61 16% 85%  
62 23% 68%  
63 20% 46% Median
64 15% 25%  
65 6% 10%  
66 3% 4%  
67 1.0% 1.3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9% Majority
52 2% 99.4%  
53 4% 98%  
54 11% 93%  
55 14% 82%  
56 24% 68%  
57 17% 43% Median
58 14% 26%  
59 8% 12%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 1.0% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 1.1% 99.7% Majority
52 3% 98.5%  
53 9% 95%  
54 11% 86%  
55 19% 75%  
56 22% 56% Last Result, Median
57 18% 33%  
58 10% 16%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.1%  
45 7% 97%  
46 17% 90%  
47 20% 73%  
48 18% 53% Median
49 17% 35%  
50 10% 18%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 3% 99.1%  
45 7% 97%  
46 11% 90% Last Result
47 19% 79%  
48 20% 59% Median
49 20% 40%  
50 12% 20%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 4% 98% Last Result
45 11% 93%  
46 15% 82%  
47 20% 67%  
48 18% 47% Median
49 17% 29%  
50 8% 12%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 0.8% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 1.1% 99.8%  
36 4% 98.8%  
37 7% 95%  
38 21% 88%  
39 23% 67%  
40 17% 44% Median
41 12% 27%  
42 9% 14%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 6% 97%  
31 14% 91%  
32 21% 77%  
33 22% 56% Median
34 20% 34%  
35 8% 14%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.3%  
28 9% 97%  
29 17% 87% Last Result
30 21% 71%  
31 24% 49% Median
32 14% 25%  
33 7% 12%  
34 3% 4%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 7% 97%  
23 19% 91%  
24 26% 72%  
25 24% 46% Median
26 14% 23%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations