Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–8 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.5% 33.6–37.5% 33.1–38.0% 32.6–38.5% 31.7–39.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 37–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–14
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 3% 99.2%  
37 7% 96%  
38 15% 90%  
39 17% 75%  
40 23% 59% Median
41 16% 35%  
42 12% 19%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.1%  
18 13% 95%  
19 23% 82% Last Result
20 28% 59% Median
21 17% 31%  
22 9% 13%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 5% 99.3%  
13 15% 94%  
14 28% 79%  
15 30% 51% Median
16 15% 21%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 14% 97%  
10 29% 84% Last Result
11 36% 55% Median
12 14% 19%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 18% 97%  
9 37% 79% Median
10 29% 42%  
11 11% 13%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.8%  
6 28% 94%  
7 43% 66% Median
8 19% 23%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–76 72–77 71–77 70–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 67 100% 64–69 64–69 63–70 62–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 57–62 57–63 56–63 55–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 57 100% 55–60 54–60 54–61 53–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 98% 52–57 51–57 51–58 50–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 49% 48–53 47–54 47–54 46–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 2% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 41 0% 39–44 38–44 38–45 37–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 34 0% 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–35 28–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 1.0% 99.7%  
71 3% 98.7%  
72 10% 95%  
73 18% 86%  
74 26% 67%  
75 21% 42% Median
76 13% 20%  
77 5% 7%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.9% 99.7%  
63 3% 98.9%  
64 8% 96%  
65 15% 88% Last Result
66 22% 73%  
67 21% 51% Median
68 18% 30%  
69 7% 12%  
70 4% 5%  
71 0.9% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.8%  
56 3% 98.9%  
57 8% 96%  
58 15% 88%  
59 19% 73%  
60 23% 55% Median
61 17% 32%  
62 9% 15%  
63 5% 6%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.6%  
54 5% 98%  
55 10% 93%  
56 16% 83% Last Result
57 20% 67%  
58 22% 48% Median
59 14% 25%  
60 7% 11%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.8% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.4% 99.5%  
51 4% 98% Majority
52 10% 94%  
53 16% 84%  
54 22% 68%  
55 19% 46% Median
56 15% 27%  
57 7% 12%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.1% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100% Last Result
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 1.4% 99.6%  
47 5% 98%  
48 9% 94%  
49 16% 85%  
50 19% 68%  
51 20% 49% Median, Majority
52 16% 29%  
53 8% 13%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.2% 1.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.9% 99.8%  
43 3% 98.8%  
44 7% 96%  
45 16% 88%  
46 15% 72% Last Result
47 24% 57% Median
48 18% 33%  
49 8% 15%  
50 5% 7%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 5% 98%  
39 10% 93%  
40 18% 83%  
41 21% 65%  
42 20% 44% Median
43 13% 24%  
44 7% 11%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 1.0%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 4% 98.8%  
32 8% 95%  
33 18% 86%  
34 23% 68%  
35 20% 46% Median
36 15% 26%  
37 7% 11%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.8% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 6% 98%  
30 10% 92%  
31 22% 82%  
32 22% 60%  
33 18% 38% Median
34 14% 20%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.1%  
28 9% 96%  
29 17% 87% Last Result
30 21% 70%  
31 23% 49% Median
32 15% 26%  
33 7% 11%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.9%  
22 4% 98.7%  
23 10% 95%  
24 19% 85%  
25 26% 66%  
26 21% 40% Median
27 12% 19%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations