Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–15 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.8% 29.9–33.7% 29.4–34.3% 29.0–34.8% 28.1–35.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.1% 99.7%  
32 4% 98.6%  
33 10% 95%  
34 15% 85% Last Result
35 23% 70% Median
36 20% 47%  
37 15% 27%  
38 8% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.1%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.7%  
22 7% 98%  
23 11% 92%  
24 25% 81%  
25 21% 56% Median
26 21% 35%  
27 9% 14%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.0% 1.2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.3%  
18 11% 96%  
19 20% 85%  
20 29% 65% Median
21 22% 36%  
22 10% 15%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.9% 1.1%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 18% 98%  
7 42% 81% Median
8 29% 38%  
9 8% 10%  
10 1.4% 1.5% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 26% 96%  
7 42% 70% Median
8 22% 28%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.6% 99.9%  
5 12% 99.3%  
6 39% 87% Median
7 36% 48%  
8 11% 12%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 78–83 77–83 76–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 67 100% 64–69 64–69 63–70 62–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 58–63 57–63 57–64 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 99.6% 53–58 52–58 52–59 51–60
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 69% 49–54 48–54 48–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 22% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.1% 42–47 42–48 41–48 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–44 39–45 38–46 37–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 25–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.9%  
77 3% 99.2%  
78 9% 96%  
79 17% 87% Last Result
80 26% 70% Median
81 26% 44%  
82 12% 18%  
83 5% 6%  
84 1.1% 1.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.8% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.0%  
64 6% 96%  
65 15% 90% Last Result
66 20% 75% Median
67 22% 54%  
68 16% 32%  
69 11% 16%  
70 4% 5%  
71 1.1% 1.4%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.5%  
57 5% 98%  
58 10% 93%  
59 18% 83%  
60 22% 65% Median
61 18% 43%  
62 13% 24%  
63 8% 11%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.6% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.5% 99.6% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 9% 94%  
54 14% 85%  
55 23% 71% Median
56 22% 48%  
57 13% 26%  
58 8% 13%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.2% 1.5% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.5%  
48 5% 98%  
49 10% 93%  
50 14% 83%  
51 22% 69% Median, Majority
52 20% 46%  
53 14% 26%  
54 8% 12%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 4% 97%  
47 12% 93%  
48 19% 82% Median
49 18% 62%  
50 22% 44%  
51 12% 22% Majority
52 7% 11%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.9% 1.1%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 7% 97%  
43 12% 89%  
44 19% 77%  
45 22% 58% Last Result, Median
46 18% 36%  
47 10% 18%  
48 5% 8%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 8% 96%  
41 14% 88%  
42 23% 75% Median
43 20% 52%  
44 16% 32% Last Result
45 10% 16%  
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 3% 99.1%  
39 5% 96%  
40 14% 91%  
41 20% 77% Median
42 17% 57%  
43 22% 39%  
44 9% 17%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3% Last Result
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 7% 98%  
32 14% 90%  
33 21% 77% Median
34 21% 56%  
35 20% 35%  
36 9% 16%  
37 5% 7%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.5% 99.7%  
29 5% 98% Last Result
30 10% 93%  
31 21% 84%  
32 23% 63% Median
33 18% 39%  
34 13% 21%  
35 6% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.2%  
25 9% 96%  
26 18% 87%  
27 24% 69% Median
28 22% 45%  
29 13% 22%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations