Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 11–22 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.3% 29.8–32.9% 29.4–33.3% 29.0–33.7% 28.3–34.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.2% 16.9–19.5% 16.6–19.9% 16.3–20.2% 15.7–20.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.2% 15.0–17.5% 14.7–17.8% 14.4–18.1% 13.9–18.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.1% 12.1–14.3% 11.8–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.0–15.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.1% 10.1–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.2–13.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.5–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 33–37 32–38 31–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Eesti 200 0 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.4%  
33 9% 97%  
34 21% 88% Last Result
35 28% 67% Median
36 22% 39%  
37 11% 16%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.9% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.4% 99.9%  
17 8% 98.5%  
18 24% 90%  
19 32% 67% Last Result, Median
20 23% 34%  
21 9% 11%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 13% 98%  
16 30% 85%  
17 32% 55% Median
18 17% 23%  
19 5% 6%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 5% 99.7%  
12 23% 95%  
13 38% 72% Median
14 25% 34%  
15 8% 9%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 7% 99.7%  
10 43% 93% Last Result
11 26% 50% Median
12 19% 24%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 10% 99.8%  
6 47% 90% Median
7 36% 43%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 71 100% 69–73 68–73 68–74 67–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 59–62 58–63 57–63 57–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 99.1% 52–56 52–57 51–57 50–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 78% 50–54 49–54 49–55 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 91% 51–54 50–55 49–55 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 0.1% 44–48 43–48 43–49 42–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 40–44 39–45 39–45 38–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 41 0% 40–43 39–44 39–44 38–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 36 0% 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–36 31–36 31–37 30–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–32 27–32 27–32 26–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 1.1% 99.9%  
68 5% 98.8%  
69 12% 94%  
70 24% 82%  
71 26% 58% Median
72 20% 32%  
73 10% 12%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.6%  
58 6% 97%  
59 14% 91%  
60 26% 77% Median
61 26% 51%  
62 15% 25%  
63 8% 10%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 4% 99.1% Majority
52 9% 95%  
53 20% 86% Last Result
54 27% 67% Median
55 21% 40%  
56 12% 18%  
57 5% 6%  
58 1.1% 1.3%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 2% 99.7%  
49 4% 98%  
50 17% 94%  
51 19% 78% Majority
52 27% 59% Median
53 19% 32%  
54 9% 12%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 1.1% 99.9%  
49 3% 98.8%  
50 5% 96%  
51 25% 91% Majority
52 29% 66% Median
53 14% 37%  
54 15% 23%  
55 7% 8%  
56 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.3% 99.8%  
43 4% 98%  
44 13% 94% Last Result
45 25% 81%  
46 24% 56% Median
47 17% 32%  
48 10% 15%  
49 4% 5%  
50 1.0% 1.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 1.1% 99.9%  
39 4% 98.8%  
40 9% 94%  
41 21% 85%  
42 24% 64% Median
43 22% 40%  
44 13% 18%  
45 5% 6%  
46 0.9% 1.0%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100%  
38 2% 99.6%  
39 7% 98%  
40 12% 91%  
41 29% 78% Median
42 26% 49%  
43 15% 23%  
44 6% 9%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 2% 99.8%  
33 6% 98%  
34 13% 92%  
35 24% 79%  
36 26% 55% Median
37 18% 29%  
38 9% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 6% 99.2%  
32 10% 93%  
33 27% 83%  
34 26% 56% Median
35 20% 31%  
36 8% 11%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.7%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.2%  
28 14% 95%  
29 25% 81% Last Result
30 27% 56% Median
31 19% 29%  
32 8% 10%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.8%  
25 7% 98%  
26 18% 92%  
27 29% 74%  
28 25% 45% Median
29 14% 20%  
30 5% 6%  
31 1.1% 1.3%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations